Early Season Supply Woes

[spike60]

I know this is a regional problem, but I thought you guys would find it interesting. Nobody has even lit a match yet, but if you can believe it, there's already a firewood shortage brewing around here in the buy/sell market. The whole supply/demand thing is just out of whack.

Short version is that there are too many sellers depending on too few loggers to supply log length wood that they can process and sell. It's more a matter of things being out of balance, than a case of not enough wood. These guys can't get wood on their own, and there's a relative handful of loggers to supply them. We lost one old timer a few months ago. Couple are working out of the area. One guy has been cutting hemlock and pine all summer and hasn't pulled any firewood out. His main customer is one of the bigger suppliers the next county up, and has has pretty much no inventory. He does a lot of other things, and it's no big deal to him, but it leaves a big hole in the market, and there's nobody up there to fill it. Lotta holes in the market, and it's set up an almost comical situation where everybody's end use customers are calling each other. And the sellers are all giving the same answer along the lines of; "I don't think I can get enough wood for my regulars, so I can't take on any new customers."

Some of the sellers would take 2-3 log loads a week to run through their processors, if they could get it. The loggers can run a couple loads a night, but the phone keeps ringing! Plus, they are actually logging and firewood does play a secondary role as to why they are in the woods in the first place. And there's plenty of people who want loads for their own use on the list. None of this affects us cut and scrounge types. Especially with dead ash trees falling all over the place. Some of the problem can be attributed to the easy availability of all that dead ash the last few years, cause there was plenty of wood to be had. But that is changing, along with some other realities in the logging world/market. One guy is delivering more from his stockpile than from jobsites and that pile is going down quick! ALL of this is made worse by the typical firewood customer attitude of waiting until they NEED wood to ORDER wood. And they're the folks who are scrambling right now.

But most everyone reading this can look outside at our wood sheds/stacks and just smile.

 

[thumbilly]

It's the same here in Michigan right now. It's coming to the end of the dead ash and people are scrambling. The price doesnt reflect it just yet but I'm sure it will. I sell a little on the side usually for just boilers and its usually pretty quiet until the snow flys. I've sold 4 loads in the last two weeks and I'm backlogged for over a dozen more. It's never been this way since I've been selling.

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[chucker]

if the weather guessers are close to being right on the winters extended forecast it should be a good fight! low supply and a high demand will put the price for wood through the top !

 

[svk]

Interesting! Totally different as around here there are several newer large scale producers who are undercutting each other to gain market share like the guy I mentioned last week where he’s providing nearly double volume to get his foot in the door. And we’ve yet to get EAB here. None of these guys were around 5 years ago.

I don’t feel bad for the consumers who NEED wood once the weather turns cool. Like the guy I delivered to last week. For several years I tried to contact him in the spring to hook him up and he wouldn’t even answer me but low and behold he wanted wood ASAP once the leaves started turning.

 

[Jhenderson]

No surprise that tree length takes a back seat to logging. As I mentioned in a previous thread, tree length is paying the same as it did 20 years ago. All it amounts to is a little pocket money for the guy in the woods.

 

[spike60]

No surprise that tree length takes a back seat to logging. As I mentioned in a previous thread, tree length is paying the same as it did 20 years ago. All it amounts to is a little pocket money for the guy in the woods.

You're right. And split wood prices never seem to change much either. Seems like it's been around $200 a cord for an awful long time. One logger told me, "Hey, it covers my fuel costs."

 

[spike60]

I don’t feel bad for the consumers who NEED wood once the weather turns cool. Like the guy I delivered to last week. For several years I tried to contact him in the spring to hook him up and he wouldn’t even answer me but low and behold he wanted wood ASAP once the leaves started turning.

That's the part that would drive me nuts. I get that folks don't want to part with money until they have to. But there are realities with firewood, seasoning for one, that need to be factored in. And I can understand someone new to burning wood, not getting it. But the same people do the same thing every year. They run themselves out of wood during the winter and then grab their phone and want another load. Just one. Seasoned. In February. Around here, many of them are going to get the classic "rude awakening" when the answer is "I'm out wood for the season."

 

[svk]

Seems like it's been around $200 a cord for an awful long time.

Same here for years...straight birch will command a bit more, as will oak up in a non oak area.

Most sellers up here still selling freshly cut or partially dried wood as seasoned. Many are shorting the volume too.

Beer money guys selling supposed "full cords" of seasoned hardwood for $150 although it is not seasoned. And I see one guy sells aspen for $60 per half cord.

On the other end of the spectrum, there is one guy about an hour west of here that will bring you a heaped 12 yard dump truck of "seasoned" (not really) black ash/red maple mix for $360. I do wonder how long he will stay in business when you think he logs, processes, and offers free delivery within a 30 mile radius for $180 a cord.

And finally you have the guy offering "cords" of oak for $125 and then he shows up with a face cord....I am sure more than one of his customers realized they were getting screwed but didn't have the gumption to say anything.

 

[spike60]

And that "spectrum" is awful broad isn't it?

Had one guy in a little while ago. Even offering a healthy discount for taking wood in the Spring, most people won't bite. Check out this math,: $180 a cord in the Spring. $225 in season price now. For someone buying 4 cords, that comes out to a FREE cord. And, it has all summer to season.

 

[thumbilly]

And that "spectrum" is awful broad isn't it?

Had one guy in a little while ago. Even offering a healthy discount for taking wood in the Spring, most people won't bite. Check out this math,: $180 a cord in the Spring. $225 in season price now. For someone buying 4 cords, that comes out to a FREE cord. And, it has all summer to season.

People just have to wait. I dont get it. Had one guy call the night he was out. It was the middle of a 3 span of subzero weather. I told him he was out of luck until it warmed up enough to get the truck running. The old 5ton am general doesnt like it that cold. Ended up having my control valve cable break it was so cold.

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[svk]

And that "spectrum" is awful broad isn't it?

Had one guy in a little while ago. Even offering a healthy discount for taking wood in the Spring, most people won't bite. Check out this math,: $180 a cord in the Spring. $225 in season price now. For someone buying 4 cords, that comes out to a FREE cord. And, it has all summer to season.

If I did wood for a business I’d stockpile everything until December and put it up for sale after all the part timers are out.

 

[sb47]

If they snooze they lose. It's as simple as that.

 

[svk]

The one thing I don’t get is people who pay high prices for the privilege of heating with wood.

If you are scrounging or processing a semi load of logs your prices are pretty low. If I had to pay retail prices for wood I’d just burn propane.

 

[jrider]

The one thing I don’t get is people who pay high prices for the privilege of heating with wood.

If you are scrounging or processing a semi load of logs your prices are pretty low. If I had to pay retail prices for wood I’d just burn propane.

Some of my best firewood customers heat with propane. I hear stories of $800 -$1000 heat bills for the 3 months of winter here in south Jersey.

 

[Blue Oaks]

The one thing I don’t get is people who pay high prices for the privilege of heating with wood.

If you are scrounging or processing a semi load of logs your prices are pretty low. If I had to pay retail prices for wood I’d just burn propane.

Well, I for one hate propane companies. And for two, I hate having that giant truck go up my driveway- wearing it out. And for three, they disconnected the tank when I bought the house, giving me a VERY cold shower, and then wanted to charge me for the propane they had already sold the previous owner. I told them to F Off and get their tank off my property. And, they did. I went down that day and got an electric water heater.

I paid $1200 for 3 cords delivered and stacked of nice dry oak. That's actually a decent deal where I live.

 

[svk]

Yeah I’m not a big fan of the gas man or the electric “co-op” either. I’m just saying if I was buying wood at retail for 400 a month vs 500 of propane a month there’s not any value. I’d rather spend 100 bucks and not be tied to the stove.

My personal cost per cord is only a few bucks so it’s totally worth burning wood.

 

[ChoppyChoppy]

Or just go all year and dont' run out.

If I did wood for a business I’d stockpile everything until December and put it up for sale after all the part timers are out.

 

[spike60]

Yeah I’m not a big fan of the gas man or the electric “co-op” either. I’m just saying if I was buying wood at retail for 400 a month vs 500 of propane a month there’s not any value. I’d rather spend 100 bucks and not be tied to the stove.

My personal cost per cord is only a few bucks so it’s totally worth burning wood.

The dynamics can change a little for folks with older houses with zero insulation, where the gas/oil furnace would never shut off during a real cold snap. Going through a tank of fuel every 2 weeks can get super expensive. Keeping a wood stove going in conjunction with the furnace can help a lot. Plus the area that the stove primarily takes care of can be nice and toasty for the family without having to keep the entire house that warm.

But many retail buyers do back away from wood when heating oil/propane prices are down. They use your math and when the costs begin to even out, why bother with the wood? They'll buy less wood, and just use it during a real cold spell/power outage, or simply when they want to enjoy a fire.

And like we talked about earlier, wood prices don't change that much, but oil and propane prices can go nuts at any time. Seems like propane can be the worst in the middle of a severe winter with almost shocking price jumps. Heating oil prices don't change that rapidly, but a $1 per gallon increase is another $200 on a 200 gallon fill.

 

[svk]

We installed a “dual fuel” rate electric furnace 15 years ago when propane was high and electric was low. Now propane is slightly more than half the cost to heat versus electric.

I’m not a fan of the electric co. With all of their BS surcharges you are 75 bucks in the hole before you draw your first watt of energy.

 

[Blue Oaks]

The ONLY thing I miss from living in the 'burbs is that fat natural gas line to the house. It's sooo much easier and cheaper to heat a house with. But, I'll take the country living every day of the week.