I've seen a fair number of these failures in both blowers and weed eaties. The cam system is definitely a weak point......among others.....
I've seen cam lobes wore down, pushrods bent, valves broken off at the base of the stem, gear jumps timing (also,related to cam gear failure). Things that are just plain improbable in an automobile or other 4 stroke small engine application seem to happen regularly with 4 mixes.
I've only seen one failure as explosive as yours but have seen plenty of cam gear failures involving simple missing teeth, jump timing, a crack, separation from the camshaft.
Since I had been battling 4 mixes for quite some time on the valve train end when I saw the first cam gear failure, I never stopped to ponder what caused them and just settled on the desperately simple explanation that they were just plain junk.
On one of the FS 4 mixers in which the cam gear teeth wore down to the point where the came would not turn anymore, the crank gear did have a sharp edge which I did conclude caused the problem. Many others did not have sharp edges though. Of the reasons you listed, I lean towards the last one. Fatigue and failure.
I have exactly 3 4 mix blowers (about 16 BR430s) and around 35 4 mix FS, FC, HL, etc series machines and the 4 mix blowers have way more problems percentage wise. They are on the way out for more 430s.