so if they are predicting a rough winter then it will likely be a mild winter. just like they predicted lots of snow in 2011-2012. and 2012-2013. ya that didnt happen. or like they predicted that 2013-2014 was gonna be a mild winter. and they scoffed at the farmers almanac for predicting a cold winter.
Long range, besides el nino and la nina or whatever they are called, there are just too many variables for them to do a good job. computer modeling is only as good as the input and interpretation, and long range they are still way off.
Now close range, within a week say, is loads better than the olden days. Biggest blizzard I ever experienced was not predicted at all until right before it started. I mean, zero snow on the ground as I got on the bus, emergency evac at school at around 8:15 am, we just got there and it was already a foot and a half deep and coming down like unreal hard, not all the kids made it home, lot of people stranded on roads, etc. My two younge4st siblings in grade school, stranded at school, they didn't even try to get them out, nothing was moving at all, and not many snowmachines around back then. January 67, lake effect blizzard. 4 feet in one day, then it drifted, right over our two story house. Coupla weeks and change no school. Too much for even the biggest trucks and road graders to deal with it that day. No notice whatsoever, Took everyone by surprise. That wouldn't happen today I don't think, everyone would get at least a couple day notice of impending white doom....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Blizzard_of_1967
Same storm, but on the michigan side of the lake, we got *twice* as much snow. Absolutely the largest snowflakes I ever saw, by 5 times, single flakes as big as your palm! Someplace buried in my junk I have old super 8 movies of it. No notice, weather service found out when everyone else did. That's why so many stranded, etc.
Al
