Lake, your spot on with this and your posts are smart and thats my point, the american joe does understand whats happening in the economy not just the loss of jobs
This thread is good and it's not a oil thread
-dave-
How bad is the economy?
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This thread is good and it's not a oil thread -dave-alpinecrick
ArboristSite Operative
And PM700's going for $300-$400........that are based on the 10-10 mid-grade saws.......
But the party on ebay won't last much longer. Economically we have a ways to go down, but more importantly, the bottom is going to be much longer than we have experienced in several generations.
Casey
Casey, you are right.I wonder if the people today have any idea what it takes to live with little or no money.People in the 1930's mostly a subsistence lifestyle before the Depression.They knew how to garden, cut wood, slaughter, can food and not spend money.Take a look at the food lines now; half of the people are on cell phones as they are waiting for their handout.
I am an ebay junkie.Take a look at the completed listings in autos; 98% are not selling.Among those that "sell", most or being re-listed due to deadbeat bidders.I admit chainsaws are still pretty strong, but that might be akin to strong ammo sales...we might REALLY need them.
I am an ebay junkie.Take a look at the completed listings in autos; 98% are not selling.Among those that "sell", most or being re-listed due to deadbeat bidders.I admit chainsaws are still pretty strong, but that might be akin to strong ammo sales...we might REALLY need them.
danbeg
ArboristSite Lurker
We're slammed with work. I advertize a lot, network with a group of contractors, volunteer in my community, treat my crew very well, hussle my butt off, and we do good work. I see lots of tree trucks sitting idle, which suggests that some tree people are sitting at home. My crew is eating steak, not top ramen.
I buy equipment when I need to, regardless of the economy. Of course, it helps to have great credit. I refuse to make decisions based on fear, and have faith that our country will rebound just fine. Give it 6 - 9 months. The outfits that take advantage of this buyers' market will reap rewards later. I'm looking to buy a grapple truck, skid steer, mini skid steer, and maybe another chipper. I'm spending $$ on more ads, throwing an open house with the Chamber of Commerce, and volunteering on high profile community projects. Oh, and I'm in 3 parardes each year.
Economy? It's all based on public perception. If people believe the dollar they spend will be replaced in a timely fashion, they'll spend that dollar. If not, they hold onto it. I'm spending my money, and it keeps coming back to me. Want the economy to turn around? Become part of a grass roots spending spree, and watch the DOW skyrocket! End the fear. End the recession... buy American. Boycott Walmart!!
I buy equipment when I need to, regardless of the economy. Of course, it helps to have great credit. I refuse to make decisions based on fear, and have faith that our country will rebound just fine. Give it 6 - 9 months. The outfits that take advantage of this buyers' market will reap rewards later. I'm looking to buy a grapple truck, skid steer, mini skid steer, and maybe another chipper. I'm spending $$ on more ads, throwing an open house with the Chamber of Commerce, and volunteering on high profile community projects. Oh, and I'm in 3 parardes each year.
Economy? It's all based on public perception. If people believe the dollar they spend will be replaced in a timely fashion, they'll spend that dollar. If not, they hold onto it. I'm spending my money, and it keeps coming back to me. Want the economy to turn around? Become part of a grass roots spending spree, and watch the DOW skyrocket! End the fear. End the recession... buy American. Boycott Walmart!!
rbtree
Addicted to ArboristSite
I missed a CS62 on ebay by the 30 minutes that I was late getting back home---hadn't had time to place a snipe on it.....it went for $320!!! I've always wanted one, of course would prefer it in Efco orange....the new saw looks to be a tad heavier and less power...who knows, they coulda just gotten realistic..as 4.7 hp is doubtful....
didn't need it, as a friend is selling me his ported 357 to replace my stolen one.
avalancher
Arboristsite Raconteur
I'm glad that you are staying not only afloat, but cruising right along. But here is one serious flaw in your reasoning. There really isnt much left of "American" left to buy. Far too much of our basic staples are either made overseas, or controlled on this side of the pond by foreign companies. True, we have some choice when it comes to cars and trucks, but everything else? We have become a victim of corporate greed that for years decided that for the time being it is cheaper to have everything made in China and shipped here. Now we are paying the price.
I dont believe for a single second that we couldnt produce everything that we need or want right here in America, but for years corporations chose to send the jobs overseas.Craftsmanship became secondary to affordable, and everything we buy now has a limited lifespan. We use it till it breaks,then we toss it because its cheaper to buy new. When was the last time you had a TV fixed?
How many major appliances are made right here by an American company?
How many power tools are made right here by an American company?
How much of our textiles are made right here by an American company?
The list could go on and on. I am sure someone will come right along and give us a list of American companies that make all this stuff, but the list would be short compared to the list of foreign companies.
Even when looking at the auto industry, we may lose the big three because of one thing, the demand for their product is less than the foreign counterpart. The big three are closing down, and Honda is buildiing a huge assembly line right here in Tennessee as we speak.
One thing that is really refreshing about these boards, we speak about what is best, not what is cheapest. We buy Stihl,Husky, etc because they are the best. Now if we could just convince American corporations to build the best.
My Dodge truck was assembled in Mexico for crying out loud!
There's a CS62 on Ebay right now $345 shipped. Steve
alpinecrick
ArboristSite Operative
I'm self-employed too--have been for 25 years. Out here in the colonies, we went through the worst recession from 1981-1989 since the Great Depression--even when the rest of the country was doing better by the late 80's. I started my business in the early stages of that recession, and ultimately prospered.
But that was a regional thing, this time it is Global. More importantly, we have systemic problems in finance, and we are deflating a super-bubble in virtually every sector of the global economy--including our federal government that is deeply in debt and is reliant on borrowing money from others in the form of Treasuries, etc. If (or when) other governments no longer have the excess money and stop buying our Treasuries, hang on........
The next big bailout will be state and local governments--and the fed government does not have the money to give out, and may not be able to borrow it.
This will NOT be a 12-24 month recession. We may (and probably will) stop seeing a declining economy in the next 12-24 months, but the recession won't be a "V" shape, it may not even be "U" shaped, there is a strong possibility it will be "L" shaped--with an open end. In other words we will see a very long bottom, unlike we have seen in post WW II.
In late summer of 1929, the Dow Jones Industrials stood at 350+ points. Over the next year, it fell to 50 points. It wasn't until 1952 that the DJI reached 350 points again. And that was with the significant help of WW II.
Right now, we are seeing a struggle between inflation vs deflation that is actually helping to moderate bigger changes in the economy. But if one gets the upper hand (and there are good arguments on both sides) we could see even more rapid economic changes than we have seen so far.
There will be a paradigm change in our economy--and maybe our lifestyles--over the next 5-15 years.
Having said all that, Lakeside does have it right. We will continue to work, and scramble, and live a decent life--we just will do it with a lot less leveraging of our money. We won't have the excesses we have grown accustomed to over the past generation or so. There will be a lot less $50k pickups with talking mirrors, or $1200 chainsaws. We won't be collecting rifles, smurf dolls, or vintage chainsaws at ludicrous prices on ebay. And we won't see very many 5000 sq ft McMansions being built--and the existing ones will be selling at half the cost.....
The prices of full-size pickups and SUV's declined by 30-50% this spring on craigslist here in Colorado. There ARE a lot of great deals out there when it comes to vehicles, tools, etc........
Casey
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mtfallsmikey
Addicted to ArboristSite
Where I work, near Mr. Obama's new home, the economy so far is still ok. This particular county in Va. where I work has one of the highest per capita incomes in the country, people are doing ok, but are getting worried about their kid's college funds, 401K's, and which/what Gov't programs get whacked, since many here eiether work for the Gov't or contractors. As far as any anti-Wal Mart sentiment...my wife works for them part time, in addition to the normal 10% discount they get on gen'l merchandise, they are gettting 10% off also on all groceries for the month of Dec. Wal-Mart simply filled a need. a lot of, not all of the old-school "downtown" retailers were stodgy, resistant to change, snobby, and lastly high-priced. Circuit City, Best Buy, Target, are "guilty" as well. so are the big box stores, H.Depot/Lowe's who took sales away from elec., plumbing, flooring,roofing etc. contractors. Years ago, the only way to buy an American-Standard plumbing fixtures were from "dealers", like myself and Dad, who operated independant businesses. These stores sell most everything I used to sell, only cheaper than i can buy it at a traditional supply house!...go figger!:monkey:
I think you have it exactly right.I think we can have something like a "U" shape recovery if the government gets out of the way and we all take a big swallow of the smelly medicine.We all know what happens when you ignore History, but we better get our facts straight; Roosevelt's policies (Smoot-Hawley, etc) made the Depression deeper and longer than it needed to be,yet he is still a hero to many.This could be the time for our country to shrug off the Ponzi schemes created by dead politicians, or, sadly, a time in which a new bunch of demagogues SAVE us with all sorts of new taxing,spending and regulation.I'm betting on the latter.
smokechase II
Addicted to ArboristSite
Just a quick clarification
"Roosevelt's policies (Smoot-Hawley, etc)"
The proximity of the above two items:
1) Roosevelt's policies
2) Smoot-Hawley (act of 1930)
could lead one to believe that the later was related to the former.
Smoot, Hawley and the President that signed them into law were all Republican. (Hoover prior to FDR)
FDR campaigned against the Smoot-Hawley tarriffs, got legislation and used it to reduce some tarriffs on a three year case by case basis.
Smoot-Hawley is given a significant credit for depression sponsorship and extension even though it came after the stock market crash. Understood.
The reader should note that Smoot-Hawley had Republican written all over it and that it did make it tougher for FDR to bring us out of the depression.
================
Incidently. Another quick clarification, also a suggestion, that with this latest debacle now is not a good time to be a crusader for deregulation.
=================
alpinecrick:
A top drawer post. I am now forced to look over whatever else you've posted.
"Roosevelt's policies (Smoot-Hawley, etc)"
The proximity of the above two items:
1) Roosevelt's policies
2) Smoot-Hawley (act of 1930)
could lead one to believe that the later was related to the former.
Smoot, Hawley and the President that signed them into law were all Republican. (Hoover prior to FDR)
FDR campaigned against the Smoot-Hawley tarriffs, got legislation and used it to reduce some tarriffs on a three year case by case basis.
Smoot-Hawley is given a significant credit for depression sponsorship and extension even though it came after the stock market crash. Understood.
The reader should note that Smoot-Hawley had Republican written all over it and that it did make it tougher for FDR to bring us out of the depression.
================
Incidently. Another quick clarification, also a suggestion, that with this latest debacle now is not a good time to be a crusader for deregulation.
=================
alpinecrick:
A top drawer post. I am now forced to look over whatever else you've posted.
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Yes, Roosevelt campaigned against Smoot-Hawley as "socialism";as President, his New Deal policies saw the national debt soar from $3 billion to $9 billion from 1932-1939 and a rise in unemployment.His minimum wage,under the Fair Labor Standards Acts, kept unemployment levels nearly twice as high as those in 1929.He signed an executive order in 1941 ordering a 100% tax rate on all income over $25,000...just what a job-less economy needed.
Please explain your love of regulation.The mortgage industry and the securities industry are the most regulated industries that we have.It was these "regulations" that prohibited the common business practices that would have prevented these bad loans from ever being made.If the Attorney General of the U.S tells you that you better not redline a loan applicant based on their ability to pay, and Fannie and Freddie are waiting in the wings to buy your worthless paper, is this a lack of regulation?I have no doubt that the lie that you and the Democrat leaders in Congress will carry the day, and the new administration will pile on a whole new array of punitive measures, disguised as "regulations", that will slow any recovery and further erode our liberty.
STLfirewood
Addicted to ArboristSite
Here is why the automakers with get there loan. If you bankrupt them and they throw the pensions out the government has to pick those pensions up. Yes pensions are government insured at 60%. So every person who is retired from an automaker will now be collecting tax dollars. Your looking at a chance of a 50 billion dollar bailout working or the reality of a 100 billion plus dollar pension insurance claim.
Scott
Scott
PB
Addicted to ArboristSite
They are shutting down 3 USDA research stations here in Maine alone. Can't imagine what is happening in larger states.
Is there going to be any good news
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27823694
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27823694
I wouldn't worry too much about deflation. They are propping the dollar up for now, but with the massive increases in money supply of the last couple of months, combined with the slowing economy, I suspect the dollar is going to tank big time in early 2009.
You want good news? Here's a stock chart for you:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SKF#symbol=SKF;range=3m
smokechase II
Addicted to ArboristSite
Back to FDR
"Yes, Roosevelt campaigned against Smoot-Hawley as "socialism"; as President,
(So it is clear that Roosevelt can't be held responsible for Smoot-Hawley and its contribution to the Great Depression. Thanks for that.)
his New Deal policies saw the national debt soar from $3 billion to $9 billion from 1932-1939 and a rise in unemployment."
(The hand he was dealt had something to do with that. Obama will have problems without question too. Let's put most of the blame on Bush II just as history places it on Hoover. The comparison just now looks like a photocopy.)
"His minimum wage, under the Fair Labor Standards Acts, kept unemployment levels nearly twice as high as those in 1929."
(The FLSA of 1938 set a basic 40 hour work week, a minimum wage of 40 cents an hour to occur 7 years later in 1945, and prohibited most child labor. It should be noted that your contention that people lost jobs is true. However, the jobs lost were abject poverty and the FLSA is one of the great pieces of legislation in our countries history.)
"He signed an executive order in 1941 ordering a 100% tax rate on all income over $25,000...just what a job-less economy needed."
(To be correct that was in 1942. That was the equivalent of over $300,000 today. But the reader does need an excuse like that. The explanation: December 7, 1941. Talk about your must win and it was an away game. How many Continents and Oceans? It was won in a shorter time than the Iraq War has taken SO FAR.)
"Please explain your love of regulation."
(This is easy with the current mess.)
"The mortgage industry and the securities industry are the most regulated industries that we have."
(May I say poorly administered. At least where administration was overlooked or important laws changed.)
"If the Attorney General of the U.S tells you that you better not redline a loan applicant based on their ability to pay, and Fannie and Freddie are waiting in the wings to buy your worthless paper, is this a lack of regulation?"
(This would be a law that needs to be 180 reversed. If we have a law that says everyone gets a loan and that law fails us then we don't need no regulation because the greedy business models will make a bubble for later bursting. We need regulation that limits what a bank can not only allow but 'sucker' a buyer into. Fannie and Freddie have no excuses here. They were encouraged by short term greed and the wall street crowd.)
"I have no doubt that the lie that you and the Democrat leaders in Congress will carry the day, and the new administration will pile on a whole new array of punitive measures, disguised as "regulations", that will slow any recovery and further erode our liberty."
I have not lied. Eat your words and be humbled by your neo-con support that is bringing down this country. Blame yourself if your Bush II vote was what put Obama in.
==================
We need regulations. Both sides do.
Whether it is regulation actually being enforced that keeps Barney Frank in line with ARM loans NOT being extended to fringe or Phil Gramm NOT being allowed to take away reasonable regulation that was in place because of the Great Depression.
The problem with extreme views from either side is that some people actually start believing the 'right of Attila" stuff. For instance that regulation is a bad thing.
The obviously correct view has to be:
1) Regulation is always a Bad thing,
2) Regulation is always a good thing,
3) Balance the above.
"Yes, Roosevelt campaigned against Smoot-Hawley as "socialism"; as President,
(So it is clear that Roosevelt can't be held responsible for Smoot-Hawley and its contribution to the Great Depression. Thanks for that.)
his New Deal policies saw the national debt soar from $3 billion to $9 billion from 1932-1939 and a rise in unemployment."
(The hand he was dealt had something to do with that. Obama will have problems without question too. Let's put most of the blame on Bush II just as history places it on Hoover. The comparison just now looks like a photocopy.)
"His minimum wage, under the Fair Labor Standards Acts, kept unemployment levels nearly twice as high as those in 1929."
(The FLSA of 1938 set a basic 40 hour work week, a minimum wage of 40 cents an hour to occur 7 years later in 1945, and prohibited most child labor. It should be noted that your contention that people lost jobs is true. However, the jobs lost were abject poverty and the FLSA is one of the great pieces of legislation in our countries history.)
"He signed an executive order in 1941 ordering a 100% tax rate on all income over $25,000...just what a job-less economy needed."
(To be correct that was in 1942. That was the equivalent of over $300,000 today. But the reader does need an excuse like that. The explanation: December 7, 1941. Talk about your must win and it was an away game. How many Continents and Oceans? It was won in a shorter time than the Iraq War has taken SO FAR.)
"Please explain your love of regulation."
(This is easy with the current mess.)
"The mortgage industry and the securities industry are the most regulated industries that we have."
(May I say poorly administered. At least where administration was overlooked or important laws changed.)
"If the Attorney General of the U.S tells you that you better not redline a loan applicant based on their ability to pay, and Fannie and Freddie are waiting in the wings to buy your worthless paper, is this a lack of regulation?"
(This would be a law that needs to be 180 reversed. If we have a law that says everyone gets a loan and that law fails us then we don't need no regulation because the greedy business models will make a bubble for later bursting. We need regulation that limits what a bank can not only allow but 'sucker' a buyer into. Fannie and Freddie have no excuses here. They were encouraged by short term greed and the wall street crowd.)
"I have no doubt that the lie that you and the Democrat leaders in Congress will carry the day, and the new administration will pile on a whole new array of punitive measures, disguised as "regulations", that will slow any recovery and further erode our liberty."
I have not lied. Eat your words and be humbled by your neo-con support that is bringing down this country. Blame yourself if your Bush II vote was what put Obama in.
==================
We need regulations. Both sides do.
Whether it is regulation actually being enforced that keeps Barney Frank in line with ARM loans NOT being extended to fringe or Phil Gramm NOT being allowed to take away reasonable regulation that was in place because of the Great Depression.
The problem with extreme views from either side is that some people actually start believing the 'right of Attila" stuff. For instance that regulation is a bad thing.
The obviously correct view has to be:
1) Regulation is always a Bad thing,
2) Regulation is always a good thing,
3) Balance the above.
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Where to even start with you?In what year did your hero repeal Smoot? Oh, that would have after he died and 4 inaugurals.
Thanks for tipping your Liberal hand;Blame Bush!Roosevelt was President for how long?Which policies did he enact that did anything other than prolong the Depression?Poverty jobs?I know a lot of my ancestors had been working such jobs for generations.Where does the gov't get the power to regulate a contract between employer and employee?Don't you be calling any businessman greedy when your boy wants to take more money from me and spread it around.The only suckers are those of you who continue to look to this Nanny State gov't for your handouts.
And adding 9 more somewhere else, my property taxes were $450 in 1983 and now they're $2900. Wish my wages would have went from $4.50 to $29.00 an hour. Our wages are not keeping up with the groth in goverenment, not even close. Look in the yellow pages, about a 1/2" of government offices, then try and deal with them, they just send you off somewhere else. I for one have had enough of BIG government. Steve
