It's snowing, oh no!

[zogger]

Zogger, I'm not beating on the weatherman so much. I know they have a job to do and it's not easy because of the many variables but if I didn't have any better success rate at accurately diagnosing a sick engine in a car or truck then they do predicting the weather I'd be out of a job. I think they purposely predict doom and gloom, If it misses us they say "oh boy we missed that" and if it happens they say "well you heard it here"! They can't lose the way they are forecasting. My biggest complaint is the 24/7 coverage and the hysteria it breeds in the population. Closing schools and roads and implementing curfews? Come on, this is Iowa it's gonna snow, it's gonna get cold. If you don't like it move to Washington State.. oh no, slowp didn't see that right?

When it is a storm like this one, when the main effects were supposed to hit in the nighttime then continue, they have two options. Take a chance they are really wrong and say "pfft, no big deal" and do nothing and say not much, or say it could be pretty severe, and these are the steps we should take. There's no do overs on either one.

One way, like most places today, people are inconvenienced and there is some but minimal disruption to economic activity, and it is quite easy to revert back to normal. No harm, minimal foul. The other way, to lowball the potential, the opposite end of their models, there could be some to major loss of life, injuries, wrecks and a much more serious amount of economic damage. that would be major harm, and major foul.

That's it, they have no other options when making their forecasts on severe weather events, ice storms snow storms heavy rain, tornadoes hurricanes etc.

There is no middle ground with potential big storms, not when you are in some authority position and peoples lives and zillions of bucks of property is at stake. You have to be prepared for the worst scenario.

You or anyone can else can classify it as hype, but if they fail to do it this way, and some storm results in being a serious catastrophe, because people didn't do appropriate actions in advance, because "no one told them"..then what?

The weather folks are the first ones to say they can't get it exact, but they give it their best shot.

And they are damned if they do it either way by most people, and I for sure am not one of them, I praise them.

You can prefer it either way, that's your choice, I would prefer to get their best prediction, and for sure the higher range, and I will still defend the weather service, because no one else does a better job when it comes to what they do.

Hindsight is 20/20, predicting the future, especially with chaotic events like complex storms and weather events, is a scosh harder. And the politicians, the governors and mayors, etc have to go by what the weather guys say is their best guess, and then the news guys run with what those folks all say. That's just how it is, some they get dead on, some they get close, and not very often are they completely wrong. And every year they are getting better at it.

I would no more criticize them severely for their forecasts than I would criticize the pro fallers here on their stumps, because I know they are the best there is.

 

[Deleted member 83629]

Not my problem i will stay in kentucky no snow here very mild today at 38 partly cloudy.

 

[svk]

When it is a storm like this one, when the main effects were supposed to hit in the nighttime then continue, they have two options. Take a chance they are really wrong and say "pfft, no big deal" and do nothing and say not much, or say it could be pretty severe, and these are the steps we should take. There's no do overs on either one.

One way, like most places today, people are inconvenienced and there is some but minimal disruption to economic activity, and it is quite easy to revert back to normal. No harm, minimal foul. The other way, to lowball the potential, the opposite end of their models, there could be some to major loss of life, injuries, wrecks and a much more serious amount of economic damage. that would be major harm, and major foul.

That's it, they have no other options when making their forecasts on severe weather events, ice storms snow storms heavy rain, tornadoes hurricanes etc.

There is no middle ground with potential big storms, not when you are in some authority position and peoples lives and zillions of bucks of property is at stake. You have to be prepared for the worst scenario.

You or anyone can else can classify it as hype, but if they fail to do it this way, and some storm results in being a serious catastrophe, because people didn't do appropriate actions in advance, because "no one told them"..then what?

The weather folks are the first ones to say they can't get it exact, but they give it their best shot.

And they are damned if they do it either way by most people, and I for sure am not one of them, I praise them.

You can prefer it either way, that's your choice, I would prefer to get their best prediction, and for sure the higher range, and I will still defend the weather service, because no one else does a better job when it comes to what they do.

Hindsight is 20/20, predicting the future, especially with chaotic events like complex storms and weather events, is a scosh harder. And the politicians, the governors and mayors, etc have to go by what the weather guys say is their best guess, and then the news guys run with what those folks all say. That's just how it is, some they get dead on, some they get close, and not very often are they completely wrong. And every year they are getting better at it.

I would no more criticize them severely for their forecasts than I would criticize the pro fallers here on their stumps, because I know they are the best there is.

This is a rare instance where I don't agree with you.

Tell it like it is. No need to go bananas and purposely over-forecast. If someone cries wolf too many times then eventually they lose all credibility. And the travel bans are absolutely crazy in "anticipation" of weather. Watch the weather and make more accurate predictions along the way rather than doomsday before the first flake has landed. If I know snow is expected overnight I plan to get up early to assess the situation before deciding if I should travel that day. That is a prudent thing to do.

Now that the storm is already into the down swing there are headlines like "Some places have snow drifts in excess of 3 feet!!!" Really three whole feet? I get a 5 foot drift in my driveway every time it snows more than a foot yet you don't see the news crews here. "Boston has a foot of snow!" What ever shall they do????

 

[zogger]

This is a rare instance where I don't agree with you.

Tell it like it is. No need to go bananas and purposely over-forecast. If someone cries wolf too many times then eventually they lose all credibility. And the travel bans are absolutely crazy in "anticipation" of weather.

Now that the storm is already into the down swing there are headlines like "Some places have snow drifts in excess of 3 feet!!!" Really three whole feet? I get a 5 foot drift in my driveway every time it snows more than a foot yet you don't see the news crews here. "Boston has a foot of snow!" What ever shall they do????

Well, their models change constantly, and I would guess if they were looked at, you'd see it changing late last night/early this morning, when most folks are still asleep and the news isn't changing as fast or as hard as during the day and early evening hours. And the various authorities did cancel a lot of their advisories and restrictions early today, as soon as they could, when they had improved data. What else extra could they do then? Seems responsible to me.

And two or more feet of snow in major coastal urban areas can become quite a chore to deal with, there's no just waving hands at it and ignoring it.

And the reason why it is a "big deal" on the news is because the areas concerned are our highest population density centers, and so on. Of course there is more human news where more humans are, that's just how it is.

Same deal with hurricanes in the season, when there is a potential big one, it can effect a lot of people, because the nation is really heavily skewed towards more people the closer you get to coastal areas, even though the bulk of the US landmass is hardly ever effected by hurricanes. It does become a big deal in the news for a few days, and when the hurricane is not as strong as it could be, the people in the projected landfall areas see that as a good thing, not bad (even though, once again, the weather service will be criticized for not getting it exactly correct).

 

[Pruning@trunk]

The more "hysteria" weather can receive in general, the higher the chance the public will believe "climate change" and "global warming" is the cause of it. This in turn leads to more regulations/control on us and the bigger gov't can grow.

 

[slowp]

Forecasts might become more accurate due to the purchase of a better computer. From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog (He's a meteorologist at the U of W.

This is important.

Today, NOAA's administrator Kathryn Sullivan announced that the National Weather Service will acquire two very powerful CRAY supercomputers to support U.S. numerical weather prediction. A machine that will FINALLY allow the U.S. to do world-class forecasting. (The press release is here).



In a number of my previous blogs, I complained about the inferior computing resources available for numerical weather prediction in the National Weather Service (NWS). I noted that groups such as the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the UKMET office have had substantially more skillful global predictions and that their superior computer resources gave them a substantial edge. I have also described how the U.S. has lacked high-resolution forecast ensembles (where the model is run many times), which undermined the NWS ability to predict severe thunderstorms and other small-scale features.

Everything can change now, IF the National Weather Service uses these powerful new computers wisely.

So here is why you should be excited.

Numerical weather prediction is the underlying technology of weather prediction and it dependent on computer power.

More computer power allows more resolution: the ability to simulate smaller-scale weather features (like thunderstorms or mountain precipitation)

More computer power allows better physics, which includes the description of how clouds form or the turbulent processes in the lower atmosphere (among others).

More computer power allows better data assimilation, the use of observations to create a physically consistent three-dimensional description of the atmosphere.

More computer power facilitates ensemble forecasting, in which running the model many times allows forecasting the probabilities of weather events.



The Details

Currently, the National Weather Service has two computers (one is for backup and research), each with a throughput of roughly .21 petaflops (quadrillion operations per second). The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has two computer that run at roughly 2.5 petaflops. In other words, they have ten times more computer power to do FAR LESS than the U.S. NWS (the European Center does not do high resolution local prediction, the NWS does). And it shows.

This month the National Weather Service will upgrade to two machines of .75 petaflops.

The new machines announced today will be 2.5 petaflops each, roughly TEN TIMES what we have today.

A major part of the announcement is that the new computers will be provided by CRAY, the leading supercomputer maker for numerical weather prediction (they are supplying the machines to the European Center and the UKMET office, among others). IBM, who has held the computing contract with NOAA, could not supply the machines, because they sold their server division to a Chinese firm, Lenovo. Thus, they subcontracted the acquisition to Seattle-based CRAY.

I have learned that the new machines will be CRAY XC-40 systems. I suspect they will each have 50,000-100,000 processors.


The Potential

Properly used, this new computer power can revolutionize and greatly improve the skill of U.S. numerical weather prediction, with huge positive impacts for the country. Problems in U.S. numerical weather prediction have not been limited to lack of computer power and these problems need to be addressed, such as an inability to entrain the huge knowledge based in the huge U.S. academic research community or inefficiencies/duplication of effort in U.S. government research and development. These are issues that must be taken on now. But the excuse of lack of computer power is gone and a renaissance in U.S. NWP is possible.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge the leadership of NOAA's Kathryn Sullivan and NWS Director Louis Uccellini in making this happen. The environment in NOAA seems to changing in a positive way and they deserve some credit for it.

 

[svk]

Well, their models change constantly, and I would guess if they were looked at, you'd see it changing late last night/early this morning, when most folks are still asleep and the news isn't changing as fast or as hard as during the day and early evening hours. And the various authorities did cancel a lot of their advisories and restrictions early today, as soon as they could, when they had improved data. What else extra could they do then? Seems responsible to me.

And two or more feet of snow in major coastal urban areas can become quite a chore to deal with, there's no just waving hands at it and ignoring it.

And the reason why it is a "big deal" on the news is because the areas concerned are our highest population density centers, and so on. Of course there is more human news where more humans are, that's just how it is.

Same deal with hurricanes in the season, when there is a potential big one, it can effect a lot of people, because the nation is really heavily skewed towards more people the closer you get to coastal areas, even though the bulk of the US landmass is hardly ever effected by hurricanes. It does become a big deal in the news for a few days, and when the hurricane is not as strong as it could be, the people in the projected landfall areas see that as a good thing, not bad (even though, once again, the weather service will be criticized for not getting it exactly correct).

Hurricanes are a total different story though and nothing to mess with. Nobody dies from 2' of snow UNLESS they have a medical emergency and are unable to get help OR they do something stupid that causes them to be subject to the elements.

 

[svk]

Forecasts might become more accurate due to the purchase of a better computer. From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog (He's a meteorologist at the U of W.

This is important.

Today, NOAA's administrator Kathryn Sullivan announced that the National Weather Service will acquire two very powerful CRAY supercomputers to support U.S. numerical weather prediction. A machine that will FINALLY allow the U.S. to do world-class forecasting. (The press release is here).



In a number of my previous blogs, I complained about the inferior computing resources available for numerical weather prediction in the National Weather Service (NWS). I noted that groups such as the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the UKMET office have had substantially more skillful global predictions and that their superior computer resources gave them a substantial edge. I have also described how the U.S. has lacked high-resolution forecast ensembles (where the model is run many times), which undermined the NWS ability to predict severe thunderstorms and other small-scale features.

Everything can change now, IF the National Weather Service uses these powerful new computers wisely.

So here is why you should be excited.

Numerical weather prediction is the underlying technology of weather prediction and it dependent on computer power.

More computer power allows more resolution: the ability to simulate smaller-scale weather features (like thunderstorms or mountain precipitation)

More computer power allows better physics, which includes the description of how clouds form or the turbulent processes in the lower atmosphere (among others).

More computer power allows better data assimilation, the use of observations to create a physically consistent three-dimensional description of the atmosphere.

More computer power facilitates ensemble forecasting, in which running the model many times allows forecasting the probabilities of weather events.



The Details

Currently, the National Weather Service has two computers (one is for backup and research), each with a throughput of roughly .21 petaflops (quadrillion operations per second). The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has two computer that run at roughly 2.5 petaflops. In other words, they have ten times more computer power to do FAR LESS than the U.S. NWS (the European Center does not do high resolution local prediction, the NWS does). And it shows.

This month the National Weather Service will upgrade to two machines of .75 petaflops.

The new machines announced today will be 2.5 petaflops each, roughly TEN TIMES what we have today.

A major part of the announcement is that the new computers will be provided by CRAY, the leading supercomputer maker for numerical weather prediction (they are supplying the machines to the European Center and the UKMET office, among others). IBM, who has held the computing contract with NOAA, could not supply the machines, because they sold their server division to a Chinese firm, Lenovo. Thus, they subcontracted the acquisition to Seattle-based CRAY.

I have learned that the new machines will be CRAY XC-40 systems. I suspect they will each have 50,000-100,000 processors.


The Potential

Properly used, this new computer power can revolutionize and greatly improve the skill of U.S. numerical weather prediction, with huge positive impacts for the country. Problems in U.S. numerical weather prediction have not been limited to lack of computer power and these problems need to be addressed, such as an inability to entrain the huge knowledge based in the huge U.S. academic research community or inefficiencies/duplication of effort in U.S. government research and development. These are issues that must be taken on now. But the excuse of lack of computer power is gone and a renaissance in U.S. NWP is possible.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge the leadership of NOAA's Kathryn Sullivan and NWS Director Louis Uccellini in making this happen. The environment in NOAA seems to changing in a positive way and they deserve some credit for it.

http://www.internetslang.com/CRAY-meaning-definition.asp

Sounds about right for a tool meant to predict weather.

 

[nathon918]

Well, their models change constantly, and I would guess if they were looked at, you'd see it changing late last night/early this morning, when most folks are still asleep and the news isn't changing as fast or as hard as during the day and early evening hours. And the various authorities did cancel a lot of their advisories and restrictions early today, as soon as they could, when they had improved data. What else extra could they do then? Seems responsible to me.

And two or more feet of snow in major coastal urban areas can become quite a chore to deal with, there's no just waving hands at it and ignoring it.

And the reason why it is a "big deal" on the news is because the areas concerned are our highest population density centers, and so on. Of course there is more human news where more humans are, that's just how it is.

Same deal with hurricanes in the season, when there is a potential big one, it can effect a lot of people, because the nation is really heavily skewed towards more people the closer you get to coastal areas, even though the bulk of the US landmass is hardly ever effected by hurricanes. It does become a big deal in the news for a few days, and when the hurricane is not as strong as it could be, the people in the projected landfall areas see that as a good thing, not bad (even though, once again, the weather service will be criticized for not getting it exactly correct).

Massachusetts still has a driving ban in effect...that's ALL of Massachusetts...half of the state got less than 4 inches! why issue things like that for the ENTIRE state when only less than 1/2 of the state is really being affected???
lately decisions have been made off of what COULD happen, you even say it yourself that their model changes CONSTANTLY, how can you base your decision off of something that's always changing?...that's just retarded!

you shouldn't need a weather man to tell you to be cautious during certain conditions...if its snowing out I keep an eye on it and clear it as needed, or if I have to go out I'm cautious...not that difficult to be observant and take the proper precautions...just LOOK OUTSIDE!

 

[slowp]

Hurricanes are a total different story though and nothing to mess with. Nobody dies from 2' of snow UNLESS they have a medical emergency and are unable to get help OR they do something stupid that causes them to be subject to the elements.

Actually they do. Get 2 feet of snow on top of existing, crusty snow in the mountains and you get avalanches. 4 or 5 "experts" were killed 2 winters ago skiing out of bounds. They were caught in an avalanche at the Stevens Pass area.

 

[slowp]

Oops, make that 3 skiers.

http://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/snow-sports/Tunnel-Vision-November-2012.html

 

[svk]

Actually they do. Get 2 feet of snow on top of existing, crusty snow in the mountains and you get avalanches. 4 or 5 "experts" were killed 2 winters ago skiing out of bounds. They were caught in an avalanche at the Stevens Pass area.

When was the last recorded avalanche in NYC or Boston? We aren't talking about your promised land and don't worry, I won't move there.

 

[slowp]

When was the last recorded avalanche in NYC or Boston? We aren't talking about your promised land and don't worry, I won't move there.

Ahh, but there are avalanches in Tuckerman's Ravine or whatever it is in the White Mountains. That is in New England. Here's an interesting avalanche video in our Steven's Pass area. This caused consternation amongst the trail maintenance people because those trees flew down the hill and ended up across the Pacific Crest Trail.

 

[nathon918]

I can see new coverage for something that's out of the ordinary...like Zogger mentioned about GA and their snow/ice storm. but there's no need for that garbage for something that happens every year!
I mean for 1 its the north, 2 its winter, 3 it snows when its cold, 4 it even snows at night (when its winter and its cold)...I just don't understand how it the **** someone can be caught off guard or surprised that's its snowing in the north, in the winter when its cold?????

 

[nathon918]

Ahh, but there are avalanches in Tuckerman's Ravine or whatever it is in the White Mountains. That is in New England. Here's an interesting avalanche video in our Steven's Pass area. This caused consternation amongst the trail maintenance people because those trees flew down the hill and ended up across the Pacific Crest Trail.

I was unaware that NYC or Boston was anywhere near the white mountains....but again you should expect that if you live in those areas...

 

[svk]

Ahh, but there are avalanches in Tuckerman's Ravine or whatever it is in the White Mountains. That is in New England.

And how many people live in the path of that?

 

[chuckwood]

I know I filled all my trucks up with gas and
diesel. That ain't cheap.

Well, it's always a good idea to keep fuel tanks full anyway, you get less water condensation happening in the tanks.

 

[slowp]

And how many people live in the path of that?

They don't but it does attract skiers and hikers. The avalanches in our state do affect folks because all 3 main mountain passes, including interstate 90, go through avalanche chutes. Our pass is usually the last to close down because it is a two lane road and easier to keep clear.

Interstate 90 is, as you'd expect, quite heavily used and is usually the first to close because of all that traffic--think jack knifed semis. It is also the lowest pass. Our pass is the highest year round one in the state at 4500 feet.

I am not sure if Stevens Pass still uses the mortar emplacements to trigger avalanches. They used to do that. Snoqualmie (I-90) had snowsheds on it to protect from avalanches. I think there is only one left and they are tearing it down. White Pass is good for also having rocks tumbling down onto the road, in spite of some major drilling and shooting and then covering the rock with wire mesh.

It's never boring to cross over White Pass.

 

[slowp]

I was unaware that NYC or Boston was anywhere near the white mountains....but again you should expect that if you live in those areas...

So, only New York City and Boston are affected by the storm? Saw a video of a pretty nasty wind and blowing snow in Maine this morning. So, it seems to be a bit more widespread.

 

[svk]

So, only New York City and Boston are affected by the storm? Saw a video of a pretty nasty wind and blowing snow in Maine this morning. So, it seems to be a bit more widespread.

You know if you stuck to posting things like the neat videos on this thread and dropped the constant attempts to stir up an argument things would go much smoother for you on this forum. Clearly the entire NE is getting some portion of the weather and I never said they weren't. But the nice folks in Maine put on their big boy/girl pants today and are just fine.