16 yo kid inside a mill

[scut207]

You missed the point Mike correctly made. You may want to re-read it.

Ok bill, how am I supposed to interpret his statement?

Is he not comparing the dangers of operating an automobile vs working in a sawmill? Did he not state explicitly that driving a car is more dangerous than working in a mill?

I guess if we’re just allowed to make up whatever we want to suit the narrative, sure.

I guess we can ignore the whole danger of working any job, like none of the rankings of the top ten most dangerous jobs, which timber farming always lands in, cause you could at any point get hit by lighting, so everything else is just moot.

Or maybe I’m wrong, that you arent intentionally just being cantankerous, explain exactly what level of semantical inspection (which of his words are the point) should I apply to his analogy, so that I don’t miss his point?

 

[wildwes]

Wes,
Do you have a Cooperative Work Experience program in your school? I had 35 out of about 90 Seniors in mine years ago and still had to teach Ag and run FFA. I then switched to a school that had close to 50 Seniors out of 90 and it was a full time job.

I don't think we have anything quite like what you're describing, but we do have limited workstudy programs, and there are apprenticeship programs that high school students can apply for. They're pretty awesome programs, but are run through the local community college instead of the high schools.

 

[Bill G]

Ok bill, how am I supposed to interpret his statement?

Is he not comparing the dangers of operating an automobile vs working in a sawmill? Did he not state explicitly that driving a car is more dangerous than working in a mill?

I guess if we’re just allowed to make up whatever we want to suit the narrative, sure.

I guess we can ignore the whole danger of working any job, like none of the rankings of the top ten most dangerous jobs, which timber farming always lands in, cause you could at any point get hit by lighting, so everything else is just moot.

Or maybe I’m wrong, that you arent intentionally just being cantankerous, explain exactly what level of semantical inspection (which of his words are the point) should I apply to his analogy, so that I don’t miss his point?

What is the #1 cause of 16 year olds dying?

 

[Bill G]

I don't think we have anything quite like what you're describing, but we do have limited workstudy programs, and there are apprenticeship programs that high school students can apply for. They're pretty awesome programs, but are run through the local community college instead of the high schools.

When I was in school I left each day to do to work at 12:52 and got 2 credits. When I taught in Iowa my students left either at 11:30 or 1:20 and went to work each day and got 2 credits. It had to be a job they worked during school hours and had to work a minimum of 10 hours a week before 4:00. If they did not then that was just an after school job and there was no reason to be let out early. When I came back to Illinois I no longer taught the program as they had a full time instructor for it. They could work mornings up til about 11:30 then come to school or come to school until 11:30 then go to work. In all the programs we/I had kids working in all types of professions. There are many that continued. One was Josh W. who was working for a local farm equipment dealer washing equipment and doing some basic repair. He has been there 27 years now working his way up to be their top salesman.

 

[scut207]

What is the #1 cause of 16 year olds dying?

Motor vehicle accidents. But if you've ever done any level of statistics, it paints only a partial picture. the population as a whole is much more likely to die in an MVA because you have daily interactions with a vehicle. Almost every teenager is in daily interaction or in the vicinity of a car likely multpile times a day. Can the same be said for sawmills and chainsaw? No.

How many teenagers work in a sawmill? 1, 10, 1000, 10,000? no one knows.

odds fo death for 16 yo Male are 70:100,000 48% due to accidents. of those 73% MVAs. roughly speaking 25.2:100,000 or 1 in 3,986.

Now assuming 16 yo kids come in contact with a lumber mills and chainsaws at the same rate they do vehicles, which we all know is a silly thing to say, it would take approximately 4000 16 yo teens to be gainfully employed year round(to match daily interaction with a vehicle) at a sawmill and 1 death to be roughly equal in danger, which is different than overall deaths.

For simplicity sake: if only 2 16yo in the US use a chainsaw in a year, and one kills himself(obviously made up) the death rate for that activity is 1:2 or or an extrapolated 50,000:100,000. I will agree that extrapolation isnt a very good method, obviously its just to paint how the numbers work.

My math is a little fuzzy, I'll admit, there are possibly some teens that do not interact nor are in proximity a vehicle in a day. Again too difficult to estimate.

However No one will ever make the point, nor am I that as a random citizen of all causes of deaths that you will die more likely due to a chainsaw or timber harvesting activity than an MVA. That is a ludicrous statement. IT DOES NOT CHANGE that timber industry is inherently a more dangerous activity. Those who do interact in the industry are more likely to die than most other professions.

back to the point, I doubt theres 4000 16 yo teens in the US working at sawmills, and if theres any less, then the stats say that this one accident makes the timber industry is more dangerous than MVAs, I could be wrong. But I doubt it, however I am open to the possibility if numbers could be provided.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db37.htm#fig2

According to IBIS theres aprox 2,400 sawmills in the US. How many of them have a 16 yo on staff? 100% 50% 10%? Guessing its on the lower end of the spectrum. Which makes my point more valid, not less.

https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-...esses/sawmills-wood-production-united-states/
heres an aerial view of the Lumber mill in question, small/med mill red truck in their for scale.

 

[Bill G]

Motor vehicle accidents. But if you've ever done any level of statistics, it paints only a partial picture. the population as a whole is much more likely to die in an MVA because you have daily interactions with a vehicle. Almost every teenager is in daily interaction or in the vicinity of a car likely multpile times a day. Can the same be said for sawmills and chainsaw? No.

How many teenagers work in a sawmill? 1, 10, 1000, 10,000? no one knows.

odds fo death for 16 yo Male are 70:100,000 48% due to accidents. of those 73% MVAs. roughly speaking 25.2:100,000 or 1 in 3,986.

Now assuming 16 yo kids come in contact with a lumber mills and chainsaws at the same rate they do vehicles, which we all know is a silly thing to say, it would take approximately 4000 16 yo teens to be gainfully employed year round(to match daily interaction with a vehicle) at a sawmill and 1 death to be roughly equal in danger, which is different than overall deaths.

For simplicity sake: if only 2 16yo in the US use a chainsaw in a year, and one kills himself(obviously made up) the death rate for that activity is 1:2 or or an extrapolated 50,000:100,000. I will agree that extrapolation isnt a very good method, obviously its just to paint how the numbers work.

My math is a little fuzzy, I'll admit, there are possibly some teens that do not interact nor are in proximity a vehicle in a day. Again too difficult to estimate.

However No one will ever make the point, nor am I that as a random citizen of all causes of deaths that you will die more likely due to a chainsaw or timber harvesting activity than an MVA. That is a ludicrous statement. IT DOES NOT CHANGE that timber industry is inherently a more dangerous activity. Those who do interact in the industry are more likely to die than most other professions.

back to the point, I doubt theres 4000 teens in the US working at sawmills, and if theres any less, then the stats say that this one accident makes the timber industry is more dangerous than MVAs, I could be wrong. But I doubt it, however I am open to the possibility if numbers could be provided.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db37.htm#fig2

According to IBIS theres aprox 2,400 sawmills in the US. How many of them have a 16 yo on staff? 100% 50% 10%? Guessing its on the lower end of the spectrum. Which makes my point more valid, not less.

https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-...esses/sawmills-wood-production-united-states/
heres an aerial view of the Lumber mill in question, small/med mill red truck in their for scale.

Yet you have failed to provide a single fact to support your assumption....................looks like the Amish/Mennonite/ Apostolic mills west of me. You do realize what yours are I hope..............

 

[scut207]

Yet you have failed to provide a single fact to support your assumption....................looks like the Amish/Mennonite/ Apostolic mills west of me. You do realize what yours are I hope..............

Bill you've shown me precicely one thing: your premise depends on not even trying to have a rudimentary understanding of what I wrote. Ive linked tables and facts, I linked them for you and explained them. I explained at length the differences in the statistics. I notice you didn't attack my math. Did you not understand? maybe you found it faulty? I could explain it better if you need help, which parts are confusing? Do you have a problem with my conclusions? provide better data, and I will adjust.

My child puts her hands over her ears and yells "nananana" at her sister when she doesnt like what she hears, I expect better from adults, but here we are.

Ignorance is a blissful state. Enjoy your happiness.

 

[dboyd351]

The ignore button does wonders

 

[sean donato]

On an arborist site, you’re making the argument that driving a car is more dangerous than the timber industry?

Really?

You’re just going to call one of the most dangerous professions as risky as picking up milk?

If false equivalency was an Olympic sport, that would be gold level.

He's not saying that at all. He's saying more 16 yo kids are killed from being inexperienced drives then 16 year old kids that work at saw mills. I'd even go on the include several other hazardous occupations to that as well, but that's a moot point.
The fact of the matter is we don't know what actually happened in this situation, so we should be reserving judgment.

 

[scut207]

He's not saying that at all. He's saying more 16 yo kids are killed from being inexperienced drives then 16 year old kids that work at saw mills. I'd even go on the include several other hazardous occupations to that as well, but that's a moot point.
The fact of the matter is we don't know what actually happened in this situation, so we should be reserving judgment.

See post 45 why that a rather myopic view on the dangers of an activity.

Made up scenario: If 70 in 100000 kids die swimming and 20 in 100 die skydiving, which is more dangerous?

50 less died skydiving per year!

Swimming is the leading cause of death! Swimming is more dangerous!

Noooooo.

Well the odds are 1 in 1428 in swimming and 1 in 5 skydiving.

Skydiving is 285x more dangerous even thought less than a 1/3rd in comparison of overall fatalities died due to that cause.

 

[dboyd351]

He's not saying that at all. He's saying more 16 yo kids are killed from being inexperienced drives then 16 year old kids that work at saw mills. I'd even go on the include several other hazardous occupations to that as well, but that's a moot point.
The fact of the matter is we don't know what actually happened in this situation, so we should be reserving judgment.

Yet every state I know of will turn a 16 year old loose with a 3000 pound automobile capable of traveling speeds in excess of 100 mph! In my humble opinion far more dangerous than working in a sawmill.


Mike

Uh Sean,

He did actually say "In my humble opinion far more dangerous than working in a sawmill"
referring to driving a car

Try as you might, I don't see how you can say he didn't say that.

 

[JRM]

A 40 year old local was killed on July 5th by a stump grinder. I know a guy that was on scene, medic... it was gruesome. 100% the 40yr olds fault according to his co workers. Age doesn't guarantee maturity or competence.
I have 2 teenage boys and have seen first hand the incompetence that most kids possess these days. I had my kids running farm equipment and chainsaws at an early age. Took their driving tests in a standard shift vehicle and passed, the 1st time. When it's a way of life and they've lived it from day one it just kinda comes more naturally. They are able to learn more slowly over the long game vs trying to get someone up to speed in a short amount of time.
On the flip side, the boys have had friends over while we were out working. They had to learn real quick this isn't the place where they were gonna Learn how to run a piece of equipment or a saw or a dirt bike. Not my place....or my problem.

 

[sean donato]

Uh Sean,

He did actually say "In my humble opinion far more dangerous than working in a sawmill"
referring to driving a car

Try as you might, I don't see how you can say he didn't say that.

True, he did say that, which I agree is wrong. I still stand by his assessment of we put kids in charge of 4000lbs machines of destruction at the age of 16. To more the point, so many have died from accidents they have laws that prevent them from having passengers and have all sorts of other requirement that most of us never had as young kids.
I'll also reiterate, that we do not know the facts of this story and should not be jumping to conclusions. Nor do I agree at the age of 16 he should be excluded from working at a saw mill, so long as provisions are made for supervision.

 

[scut207]

Right, so many anecdotal stories about how everyone here knows people of vastly different maturity or levels of risk aversion aka responsibility at different ages. What does it say? And how do we act on it?

Psychologists will say boys mature slower than girls. Men dont like to hear it. We'll come up with a million reasons why we dont think it so. We'll hear yarns miles long about something stupid a girl did while you were out working hard on the farm as if it somehow one or two anecdotes disproves research done on large sets.

Regardless, as a society or civilization we have age gated several things: Attendance of movies, MV license, military, drinking alcohol, owning a weapon, make own decisions regarding healthcare, and relationships.

It is the accepted norm. There are outliers in both directions and I am not saying on your property you cant let your kid do ___insert_dangerous_activity___, or that you haven't met adults that you couldn't trust to sort laundry.

Exceptions always exist.

I will not, however, like many here have posted, agree that kids need to do more dangerous work in a factory setting earlier because it builds character or some nonsensical amorphous morality.

It directly translates to you don't give a crap if more kids get hurt severely or killed. It will happen in larger numbers if the laws allow it. I I am not saying you personally don't care, you honestly may believe you do. But the result will be the result. Its not my opinion, its just plain mathematical fact. More young people doing dangerous work = more injuries and fatalities of young people. I, me personally, don't think it should be legal.

Not everyone will care like you may think you do, many will take advantage of child labor to pad their bottom line. It is an economic race to the bottom to allow it. The profits will be paid in blood.

Most people are tribal and dont give a crap if it happens to someone else, but wait until it affects them or their family, then you'll live with it. Imagine having a 16 yo kids life ended right in front of you. Boy he was doing great up until about 20 seconds ago, a real go getter, never saw him do anything wrong, a real mature young man. Saved up and bought a new truck. He just got a new girlfriend got a fun text and was daydreaming about fun fun time. But a job is for work. I told him to keep his head in his work. Certainly wasnt my responsibility as an adult to prevent that entire situation from even occurring. Thoughts and prayers. Now its a gofund me. Back to work tomorrow.

 

[Mad Professor]

Sad but.....I was doing cordwood and working a farm at 14. Farming is as dangerous as logging.

Later worked a commercial lumber mill, still have all my fingers.

People who hurt themselves, either were stupid or were pushed to be by owners/foremen.

Every so often bad luck gets someone too.

 

[scut207]

Sad but.....I was doing cordwood and working a farm at 14. Farming is as dangerous as logging.

Later worked a commercial lumber mill, still have all my fingers.

People who hurt themselves, either were stupid or were pushed to be by owners/foremen.

Every so often bad luck gets someone too.

Yep and a kid is exactly the impressionable type to not raise a ruckus, Wants to impress the adults. Wants to be seen as the hard worker. Hence the problem.

 

[sean donato]

Right, so many anecdotal stories about how everyone here knows people of vastly different maturity or levels of risk aversion aka responsibility at different ages. What does it say? And how do we act on it?

Psychologists will say boys mature slower than girls. Men dont like to hear it. We'll come up with a million reasons why we dont think it so. We'll hear yarns miles long about something stupid a girl did while you were out working hard on the farm as if it somehow one or two anecdotes disproves research done on large sets.

Regardless, as a society or civilization we have age gated several things: Attendance of movies, MV license, military, drinking alcohol, owning a weapon, make own decisions regarding healthcare, and relationships.

It is the accepted norm. There are outliers in both directions and I am not saying on your property you cant let your kid do ___insert_dangerous_activity___, or that you haven't met adults that you couldn't trust to sort laundry.

Exceptions always exist.

I will not, however, like many here have posted, agree that kids need to do more dangerous work in a factory setting earlier because it builds character or some nonsensical amorphous morality.

It directly translates to you don't give a crap if more kids get hurt severely or killed. It will happen in larger numbers if the laws allow it. I I am not saying you personally don't care, you honestly may believe you do. But the result will be the result. Its not my opinion, its just plain mathematical fact. More young people doing dangerous work = more injuries and fatalities of young people. I, me personally, don't think it should be legal.

Not everyone will care like you may think you do, many will take advantage of child labor to pad their bottom line. It is an economic race to the bottom to allow it. The profits will be paid in blood.

Most people are tribal and dont give a crap if it happens to someone else, but wait until it affects them or their family, then you'll live with it. Imagine having a 16 yo kids life ended right in front of you. Boy he was doing great up until about 20 seconds ago, a real go getter, never saw him do anything wrong, a real mature young man. Saved up and bought a new truck. He just got a new girlfriend got a fun text and was daydreaming about fun fun time. But a job is for work. I told him to keep his head in his work. Certainly wasnt my responsibility as an adult to prevent that entire situation from even occurring. Thoughts and prayers. Now its a gofund me. Back to work tomorrow.

So, many assumptions....

 

[M. Kulp]

Take a look at your Amish or Mennonite neighbors if you have some. When do their children start working? 18?..... Aren't they mostly farmers, builders, or some other heavy labor occupation? Maturity and training are the qualifications for a job. Wasn't a strong respect for authority been trained since they could walk? And their children actually want to work.
Their version of child labor laws may be "if a feller doesn't want to work, then why should he want to eat?".
Yes, life is dangerous. But even in our setting, I know 2 young men that died in car accidents, and only one who died performing 'dangerous' work on the farm.

 

[scut207]

So, many assumptions....

I haven't been presented one singular piece of data to counter what I said, regarding the odds. "Nuh Uh" has been the scientific summation of responses.

Yarns and anecdotes is all anyone poopooing me have provided. No one seems to absorbed the difference between leading cause in a large set and odds of injury in a specific activity. Several have tripped right past and rehashed the same statistical fallacy.

Who woulda thunk that survivorship bias isn't just a fairy tale, the people who could tell us about how they died or were severely injured aren't here to regale us. Most of the folk here didnt die in a lumber harvesting accident or in a mill, a fair number have been hurt, most haven't.

I guess when the statistics point out its a very dangerous industry, thats no longer true? because you didnt get hurt? ever? Do you refute that teens as a group arent anywhere near as risk averse as adults in general? Its not some far fetched theory that the combination of adding non risk averse population in a dangerous job is a recipe for disaster in a large data set, in fact its just how it works.

 

[sean donato]

According to the bureau of labor and statistics ( https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_alpha.htm#F )
there were 61 fatalities in 2021 in the forestry and logging industry. 63 in 2020,59 in 2019, and 84 in 2018.
In the mining Industry there were 552 fatalities in 2021, 593 in 2020, 704 in 2019, and 704 in 2018.
Agriculture. 2021 457 fatalities, 2020 515, 2019 577 and 2018 574.
First, according to the facts logging and forestry is not the most dangerous job. The facts say far more die in farming and mining incidents.
Better yet, should I start pulling cdc stats for vehicular deaths? Heart attacks?
You don't know the facts of what happened and you've presented exactly zero facts. Just your biased opinion, then slandered everyone else that shared their opinion, as uncaring child slave drivers.
I do not know what happened with the young man in the article you originally posted, and neither do you. That's the facts.