A topic beat into the ground

[Whitespider]

I know there's been numerous weather related threads lately, but wow!

I just checked the forecast for the upcoming week and it's more of the same. Looking at highs in the 40's, maybe some lower 50's with lots and lots of sunshine. There is the possibility of some light snow 'round Thursday, but it's a very slim possibility. Looks like the temperatures will drop down into the lower 20's for Thursday, but climbing back up to well over freezing by the weekend. Light winds from the southwest for a few days, switching to the north for the cool-down later in the week... but still not bad, barely reaching 15 MPH, if that.

Yesterday the little boy and I uncovered the golf cart and took it for a little spin through the woodlot and down the road to grandpa's house... I didn't even bother to put a jacket on, a heavy wool shirt was just right. I believe I'll head out this morning and finish cleaning up a couple of fall zones, then maybe put some oak on the ground... spend the rest of this winter working them. I was hoping, or waiting, for the ground to freeze solid before felling those big oaks, but now it's late enough in the year that 8-12 inches of frost just ain't gonna' happen anytime soon... might not happen at all!

I hear a lot of people saying we're gonna' pay dearly for all this nice weather... but there just ain't anything in the forecast or weather pattern to support that. Historically, and on average, January is our coldest month; February is normally the snowiest, but also starts a slow warm-up (very slow) that really accelerates come the second week in March (in like a lion, out like a lamb)... and February is only three weeks away! Doesn't matter how ya' slice it, we're looking at another week of warm weather, and then it's only 6-weeks to March... and nothing in the forecast or weather pattern to indicate we're get slammed by winter. Without clouds to block sunshine, and without snow cover to reflect solar energy, our days are gonna' stay warm(ish)... and every passing day makes it that much more difficult for ol' Man Winter to get a solid grip on us.

One thing is for positive... One more week of mild weather means I'll still be burning the wood I put in for early season when March gets here. I seriously doubt I've burned 2 full cord yet, maybe getting close... and that has been all standing-dead and blow-down elm, a lot of it aged past the "prime" stage. The 12-cord of premium oak I stacked up for cold weather probably ain't gonna' get touched this year... and I'm planning on putting up another 8-12 cord of oak, sugar maple and ash this winter/spring... making me good for three years unless one of those winters is a repeat of last year.

A dry corn harvest and mild weather has put low demand on LPG, keeping prices well below $2.oo in this area. I can actually see an LPG glut next drying/heating season... if I hear the "same ol', same ol'" about shortages I'm gonna' be laughing my butt off.

 

[olyman]

I know there's been numerous weather related threads lately, but wow!

I just checked the forecast for the upcoming week and it's more of the same. Looking at highs in the 40's, maybe some lower 50's with lots and lots of sunshine. There is the possibility of some light snow 'round Thursday, but it's a very slim possibility. Looks like the temperatures will drop down into the lower 20's for Thursday, but climbing back up to well over freezing by the weekend. Light winds from the southwest for a few days, switching to the north for the cool-down later in the week... but still not bad, barely reaching 15 MPH, if that.

Yesterday the little boy and I uncovered the golf cart and took it for a little spin through the woodlot and down the road to grandpa's house... I didn't even bother to put a jacket on, a heavy wool shirt was just right. I believe I'll head out this morning and finish cleaning up a couple of fall zones, then maybe put some oak on the ground... spend the rest of this winter working them. I was hoping, or waiting, for the ground to freeze solid before felling those big oaks, but now it's late enough in the year that 8-12 inches of frost just ain't gonna' happen anytime soon... might not happen at all!

I hear a lot of people saying we're gonna' pay dearly for all this nice weather... but there just ain't anything in the forecast or weather pattern to support that. Historically, and on average, January is our coldest month; February is normally the snowiest, but also starts a slow warm-up (very slow) that really accelerates come the second week in March (in like a lion, out like a lamb)... and February is only three weeks away! Doesn't matter how ya' slice it, we're looking at another week of warm weather, and then it's only 6-weeks to March... and nothing in the forecast or weather pattern to indicate we're get slammed by winter. Without clouds to block sunshine, and without snow cover to reflect solar energy, our days are gonna' stay warm(ish)... and every passing day makes it that much more difficult for ol' Man Winter to get a solid grip on us.

One thing is for positive... One more week of mild weather means I'll still be burning the wood I put in for early season when March gets here. I seriously doubt I've burned 2 full cord yet, maybe getting close... and that has been all standing-dead and blow-down elm, a lot of it aged past the "prime" stage. The 12-cord of premium oak I stacked up for cold weather probably ain't gonna' get touched this year... and I'm planning on putting up another 8-12 cord of oak, sugar maple and ash this winter/spring... making me good for three years unless one of those winters is a repeat of last year.

A dry corn harvest and mild weather has put low demand on LPG, keeping prices well below $2.oo in this area. I can actually see an LPG glut next drying/heating season... if I hear the "same ol', same ol'" about shortages I'm gonna' be laughing my butt off.

6 years in a row,,that farmers have used near NO lp..it was about 60 cents a gal,,then one year,,farmers used a bunch,,cause the corn was wet..what happened the next year??? 1.65 a gallon..and like you said,,now theres a glut of the stuff,,but does the price drop back??? NOPE!!!! gas and oil co's are a farce...

 

[Whitespider]

Hard to fathom 4 and 5 dollar LPG over on the east coast, ain't it?
What could possibly drive a 200-300% increase over Iowa prices?
Supply and demand? I could see a 50% increase... but 300%? C'mon!!
The highest LPG prices I can ever remember in this area was $2.24... and that only lasted a couple weeks before it dropped back under $2.oo.

Actually there is a reason that LPG prices have stayed high. Simply, it's the price of crude oil based fuels that does it. LPG is produced at a fairly constant rate as a by-product of crude oil refining and natural gas processing... but it doesn't compete with natural gas, because of its portability LPG competes with crude oil based fuels. LPG companies need only keep the price per BTU within a few cents of fuel oils... as fuel oil prices rise, LPG prices can rise even though the (actual) cost of production changes little in comparison. Supply and demand can only cause temporary price spikes... usually very short term price spikes...

 

[Bushmans]

It sure has been a weird one.
Not only is the LPG usage down but I'll bet the sale of Prozac and related mood altering prescriptions are down as well. Of course were still at $3 a gallon though.
It's just hard to not smile when you walk out in the morning and it is sunny and over 35 degrees.
On the downside it makes it tough to get wood moved around my yard.
I've got a pile on the garage floor that needs to be moved "out back" still because I didn't want to drive my truck on the unfrozen yard.
Around here we are staying close to 40 degrees until Thursday and then it'll freeze back up for a few days.
I have a big score of downed trees waiting for me to haul them out of the woods but I need some frozen ground for three days or so.
After that haul I should have enough wood for the next two years.:msp_biggrin:

The ice fisherman all have the Jones' right now!:msp_angry:

 

[olyman]

Hard to fathom 4 and 5 dollar LPG over on the east coast, ain't it?
What could possibly drive a 200-300% increase over Iowa prices?
Supply and demand? I could see a 50% increase... but 300%? C'mon!!
The highest LPG prices I can ever remember in this area was $2.24... and that only lasted a couple weeks before it dropped back under $2.oo.

trying to figure that out,,might take your WHOLE lifetime....

 

[Chris-PA]

The Midwest has a glut of oil from Canada because they do not have the pipelines to distribute it elsewhere, and that's been causing a big price differential. They're using tanker trucks to get it to the Gulf so they can send it elsewhere (not necessarily to the US either). I don't know if that holds true for LPG though. Anyway, distribution problems are driving a lot of price differences. Refineries on the east coast are shutting down because they can't get the kinds of light crude they used to get from Africa, and they don't want to invest in upgrading them to use the heavy stuff.

 

[Dalmatian90]

WoodHeatWarrior's post got me thinking, and some googling and I think he's barking up the right tree even though I don't think he got the whole answer right.

Reading this from the Canadian Gov't: NEB - Energy Reports - Canada's Energy Future: Infrastructure Changes and Challenges to 2020 - Energy Market Assessment ...if I understand it right a considerable amount of propane from Canada doesn't come as a left-over from distilling propane but as a form of natural gas which they then separate into ethane (for plastics), methane (traditional "Natural Gas"), and propane.

and:

In 2008, approximately 47 per cent of Canadian propane exports were transported by pipeline, closely followed by rail at 43 per cent and truck at 10 per cent.

My back-of-the-napkin math says the cost of transportation from Des Moines to Albany by rail would only add 50 cents/gallon to the price; but we may have capacity issues where there just isn't room on the rail network for large volumes of propane to move from the Midwest to the East Coast once it gets to Chicago & Ontario. (In my area we have tracks that were abandoned for 30 years that have been re-opened and are now being rebuilt to support the demand for Ethanol...never in my life had I seen 100 car trains in this area until they started hauling ethanol through here by rail!)

I may not have this whole puzzle figured out but I'm thinking we have a combination of cheap Canadian propane since they can just pump it out of the ground, combined with transportation bottlenecks in the U.S. that keeps it from reaching east coast markets; while the East Coast depends on the more limited supplies and more expensive form of propane that comes as a by-product of petroleum refining.

 

[Chris-PA]

We're burning the little stove quite a lot with this weather. We added a little stove upstairs a couple of years ago as a kind of unplanned adaptation to a chimney installation gone wrong (guy put in a flue too small to work with the fireplace). It's a Hampton H200, and the more I use it the more I like it. It really puts out a lot of heat, gets a good secondary combustion going, and it's sure is pretty.

It's just the ticket for these temperatures. It's also nice when you get a bunch of odd sized stuff - if it's too big I can nip it down and use it in the small stove. Earlier this summer I spent two days clearing out some dead/dying ash trees from treeline, and apparently I lost my mind those couple of days - half of the stuff I cut up is just too long for the main stove. I've been cursing about it since, but I just cut 'em in half and use it anyway.

It's a bit dirty, which the flash shows well:

 

[Whitespider]

60-percent of our propane comes from separating it from natural gas as is it is extracted from the ground, 40-percent comes from the refining of crude oil. Wherever natural gas/crude oil is being extracted from the ground there is also propane being separated from it at the time of extraction… including east coast oil fields, such as those in Pennsylvania. Although more propane does come from Canada, that just doesn’t seem to be enough of an explanation for the huge price difference. Also, Nebraska does not have a pipeline running through it, but still typically has the lowest LPG prices of any state. There just has to be more to it than logistics in mind…