As for heavy natural pine regen, it is not that hard to predict. If you final harvest mature Pine in October when the cones are open, the skidders will plant that seed better than any planting crew. If you have a fire in August in a stand just to the east of mature Pine with a good crop of cones on it, you will get a lot of seed landing on the site. Or, if you harvest mature Pine in August and the site lies just to the east of a lot of tall Sweetgum trees, well... Just some examples of ways people could think about it, but don't.
The basic solution is extremely simple - walk the site before it is planted. Forestry has to be done via boots on the ground, not from the cab of a pick-up or via aerial imagery and the GIS back at the air-conditioned office.
OK. So everything is like Michigan, eh? And all is pine, eh? And you are an expert nation-wide, eh?
Let me gently correct your tunnel vision. All is not mid-east pine. All is not pine. Lodgepole pine is serotenous (hope I spelled it correctly). Look it up. Not all sites are equal. A few places have these things called, mountains. Skidders can't even run on them. We don't rely on cones and seed. We plant trees.
Lodgepole pine is one of my favorite species. Like "lazy" gubmint foresters, it gets no respect. It used to be considered a weed. It grows thick, at higher elevations in those things called mountains, and it is fire/heat dependent. It is an early seral species. The cones don't open every October when a skidder runs over them. They open after being exposed to heat. Fire is the usual trigger but I have seen reprod appear in south facing clearcuts. The sun did the work. There have been attempts to convert lodgepole standst into Western Larch stands. I haven't heard any success stories. Lodgepole is a bit like our Red Alder, you can't keep it from growing (economically speaking) on a disturbed site that was lodgepole.
On our west side and I'm not talking any other region but PNW, we grow trees. We have reforestation laws. Private landowners get a tax break if they have enough acreage and meet stocking levels. They can't wait for seeds to be run over by those skidders either. Units are planted, and planted to a closer spacing than they will be at when mature. You didn't mention damage by wildlife. That's another reason to plant at a close spacing. Also, Weyco did some studies that show that seedlings will grow faster when spaced closer. It has something to do with light bouncing around the trees.
You make another broad statement about lazy gubmint employees. You need to get out of your basement and see what goes on. Yes, there are a few lazy ones, just like there are lazy people spouting their lack of knowledge without looking up their facts. Some of us lazy and former lazy employees have actually worn out our knees and feet. Sometimes we lazy folks have so many places to be that we can't walk every acre of a unit. We do these things called plots instead and yes, we now can use GIS to get an idea of things--like where to go to begin with. We lazy people say, "Work smarter, not harder."
You have no idea what goes on in those air conditioned offices. Budgets, downsizing, crisis management, and the suck of those lazy folks heading to fires during field season.
Oh well, you'd fit right in on the political forum......
I was asking Sliverpicker for a ballpark figure for thinning LODGEPOLE pine where it is doghair. I'm talking about those areas where you push your way through using both hands. Where you get smacked in the face and say bad words. A different world.
