Western Forest Fire Forcast Release

[Burvol]

I am making a prediction (I guess) that all of our snow pack is going to keep our forests wet, the morels plentiful, the grass & small ladder fuels growing fast, then we will have a typical, hot summer that will start some raging fires. I cannot believe how choked up and thick some of the State & USFS wood is. Log that ****!

 

[Cedarkerf]

Standard prediction will come. Worst fire season in decades because its too dry,too wet, too much snow up high,too much green growth,cause the summer is so cool and damp, because Al gore said so. No matter the weather pattern or moisture we always get the same forecast.

 

[Burvol]

Standard prediction will come. Worst fire season in decades because its too dry,too wet, too much snow up high,too much green growth,cause the summer is so cool and damp, because Al gore said so. No matter the weather pattern or moisture we always get the same forecast.

Pretty much. Nothing around here got shut down last year, but it is time to do some thinning.

 

[forestryworks]

we MUST thin the living daylights out of our forests...

either that or let 'em burn
and we can't just let a fire burn anymore these days

 

[smokechase II]

Can't be done

No one has ever predicted fire seasons accurately.

Too many variables.

For instance:

What really makes a difference is how dry the late spring and summer are combined with how many starts we get on the worst days of the summer.

****************

Our fuel loading is a mess.
Way outside of norm. Way.
(Three big errors:
We logged the best most fire resistant trees,
Fought fires like we were ordained by God to do so,
Built homes next to this natural junkyard.)

There is a huge amount of money to be made.
The pro falling teams reap in $199/hour a pair with tools.
Only $65 actually goes to each faller.

******************

Safe prediction.
Over the next several years, business will be good.
No guarantees this year but be ready anyway.

 

[slowp]

I hope it is a repeat of last year when we had no lost days. It was cooler for the most part and I didn't get too cranky from the heat. That's why I live here...cooler. We like temps in the 50s for working in. The fire gods always get excited about the upcoming fire season about now and it doesn't always turn out like they predict.

 

[smokechase II]

Happy Firefighters

Here is what makes for local contented fire crews, a good economy and an appreciative public.

Lots of slightly wet lightening storms throughout the summer.

The local crews get plenty of action on small fires, deal with a tree and a 3/4 day of mop-up. Beverage of choice that night.

Then perhaps a sampling of big fires in neighboring states to fill in the other checks. (A straight time check means you are worshiping the wrong deity.)

Everyone is a winner.

 

[snowdog]

hey smokechaser, what makes this fire fighter happy is small fires in the timber, rather then the hot desert BLM fires. don't get me wrong i like desert fires too, fast pace, lots of action, and minimal mop up. awh what the hell send me anywhere, i sleep better in the dirt then on a mattress.

 

[smokechase II]

BLM fires

A BLM fire, sage - some juni's - rocks up the wazoo, is unappreciated in the same sense that an alcoholic puking in the morning is without love.

I concur.

 

[smokechase II]

Predicting BLM fires

This does not represent any level of disapproval between agencies, seeing as how we will all be one giant Federal Wildland Fire outfit in 5 years anyway.

But 'their' fire seasons go by the beat of a different drummer.

A wet spring and even early summer, provided the annual grass seed supply is up to the job, can make for a more consistent fuel bed. With a decent amount of grass growing and then drying out in-between the brush we can now have large fires on lower wind days.

The good Lord provides, Amen.

**************

There is a romance to those high desert fires, the fragrance of the sage, the juniper pollen causing sneezing fits, the rapid change of direction of the flame fronts trapping a yellowish engine that is backing out at Mack III over what was a road as recently as 1956.
The fire totally stopping with humidity recovery at night and the twinkling of all the woody material burning to form a mirror of the stars above. MRE's and good friends all around.

Sigh.

 

[snowdog]

Chaser, you forgot the smell of burning cow pies, 1000 acre burn outs, dodging rattle snakes, and dulling your chain on junnies. man am i getting excited.

 

[ShoerFast]

There is no way to pridict this!

The worst years I have seen in Colorado, the trees had a core moisture content of about 8% - 10% , that was in standing live trees! When a fire started, there was no way to put them out.

The season leading up to the worst years were less then normal snow cover, dry-sap stage in the spring and a blistering hot summer.

Beetle kill is the real issue around hear this year, drought will intinsfy the kill ratio.

I say cut it all Clinton did what he could to pacify tree-huggers, Bush did sign the Healthy Forrest Act, but still not enough done to harvest our reascorces.

 

[Jacob J.]

You guys could look at historical trends to make an educated guess for this year. The winter of 95/96 was a good one with better than average snowpack on the west side of the Cascades. The fire season of '96 was far better than average in terms of acres burned and the variation of fuel types. Alaska had one its worst seasons in a decade and the southwest had a great season (I was on the "Dome" fire near Los Alamos for 36 days and went directly to Alaska from there.) The winter of '99-2000 was also wetter than average with a good snowpack and then the 2000 season was one of the best ever, with the Big Bar fire in NorCal and many other fires on the west side.

Last year it was the Rockies, Great Basin, and central Idaho. I think this year it will be the southwest/south zone, eastern & western Washington, and southern Oregon/northern California.

 

[Stihlboy088]

Any of you guys out there on fire crews? I just went through type 2 Wildland training and am going for pumps, and type 1 training in may. so i'm kinda looking to get on a crew out west. anyway if you are send me a message cause i'm lookin for contacts out there.

 

[Cedarkerf]

When the snow stops pilling up on the hill behind the hous and starts melting Ill worry about it but so far the early warm spring the experts are predicting is freezing my buttt off.

 

[smokechase II]

Snow

Locally the statistical day with the highest snowpack is April 1st.
It certainly can be later.
This year it will be interesting to see if we've had any roof collapses.


Does this mean a slow fire season?

Up high it does mean a shorter, or at least later fire season.


1910: The big blow-up. Over 80 fire fighter deaths and 3 million acres in less than three days.
Yet they had a similar snow pack to this winter. Lots of snow.

If they had just skipped that one cold front they would have been fine for stats that year.

 

[elliott]

I don't know what you guys have got out west for snow, but it's at about four hundred and sixty inches and counting here in Steamboat. I forecast a warm spring but with big storms blowing through, and a hot summer with little precipitation.

This means early grass growth with plenty of moisture and heat so that it really comes on, then dries up mid-summer. This gives us a great fuel bed, and with all the bug killed trees around here, we'll have total devastation of the western slope of Colorado.

I say let 'er burn. :angry2: