We OPE dealers have one strength that should not be overlooked. Even in good times, people don't usually buy our stuff unless there is a genuine need. A guy doesn't buy a lawn tractor until the old one croaks. Same for saws, excepting CAD of course. It has always been a need based business. And it has always been more dependent on the weather than the economy. A drought scares me way more than the recession can. The only concern I have this year is getting retail finance approvals on the big ticket stuff like the Exmarks. I do know of a few shops that are genuinely worried, but these are bigger places with lot's of overhead, lot's of employees, etc. I know one guy who built a $900,000 show place 2 years ago, and he's pretty nervous. Dumb thing is he has a great business and really didn't need that two story monument. It has to be an ego thing.
If we get the weather, most of us will be OK. All of the work that needs to be done with our equipment will still have to be done one way or the other regardless of the economy. Grass still has to be mowed, snow still has to be moved, and wood still has to be cut. Saw wise, the economy has actually hepled us with a renewed interest in wood burning. Like anything, there can be exceptions to this logic. A saw only shop that is primarily focused on pros can be hurt real bad if the local timber industry shuts down. And I'm sure there are other examples.
Let's not compare ourselves to the car business though. Nine out of ten people who buy a new car don't need a new vehicle. The auto business has gotten used to customers getting a new one every 3 to 5 years. But what we are seeing now is people simply continuing to drive what they own, rather than trade in a 4 year old car in perfectly good shape. A positive note for the auto business though is something called the scrapage rate, which is the amount of vehicles that get junked every year. I think it has averaged 12 million units the last few years, so the auto biz should at least settle in at a similar volume. But the 16 to 17 million level they have enjoyed the last several years is not sustainable.
I'm actually thankful that I have a business that while not immune from the recession, is at least somewhat insulated from it. And most of all, it's great to be working for myself rather than be in a situation where some executive can decide that me and a hundred other people have to be let go in some kind of downsizing nonsense. I wouldn't have it any other way.