Do you go with with your gut, or do you do the math?

[jefflovstrom]

My gut and my math sometimes disagree,,
The only reason I ask this is because I want to trust my gut, but when I do the math, it seems really low,,
There must be a gut bid to reasonable bid, is your Gut more powerful than your Math
Dang ,I walked this property and it is a massive job,
without giving too much info, my gut is way more than my bid.
Jeff

 

[BC WetCoast]

I find that you need lots of experience to use your gut.

On the other hand I've been burned using math and I think it's because you forget to account for little things, like moving from tree to tree, saw sharpening etc. On a big job with lots of repetitive items this can add up.

Using your gut, I think can also help because you know your crew, especially when you have lots of crews, and they all don't work evenly. If you have 200 trees to prune, doing math may say each tree will take 1/2 hour, but your gut says half your crew will take 35 minutes, you may get a better answer.

I've seen salesmen get burned on hedges using their gut, which is a problem considering this is one type of job, you could use math on.

This reply is a bit of a stream of consciousness, but I think the more variables or the more ways of tackling a job makes the math approach less accurate.

I was at a conference and talking to one guy who originally trained as an efficiency engineer at a car plant. He would count the number of steps the groundmen would take from the tree to the chiopper, the number of branches they could carry, the amount of brush on the tree (ie number of trips) to determine the optimal number of groundies per job and the price. I think that's going to little too far.

 

[AGoodSteward]

I take the low bid then bump it up 10-20% to account for error of judgement. I have finished jobs earlier than I thought and lowered my bill accordingly. But never will I raise my price if I underbid it.

 

[miko0618]

I have to actually walk under the tree and look up to bid high enough to make what I am worth. I can measure it, guesstimate hours but unless I get up to it and look inside it, I'll be low almost every time.

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[ATH]

Sounds like your gut is saying "Make sure your math is right." Go through it all again, see if you missed something add in some "what if" factor to the math then see how your gut feels.

I'd also ask "how would I feel if I don't get this job?" If that wouldn't bother me too much, I'd up it to make sure it was worth it if I did get it. If I really want it, I'd try to make the lowest possible math make sense.

 

[Zale]

For me, bidding the big jobs is always a mindf*ck. I've lost some jobs because I used too much math and didn't listen to my gut. If you can get a second pair of eyes to look at the job or look at your numbers, that will give you a sense if you are in the same ballpark.

 

[CanopyGorilla]

It's the hardest part. If I lose a big one I tend to go low on the next one, then kick myself all the while doing underbid work

 

[marne]

First the math to get in the right direction, than the gut lowers or raises the price, depending on those little obstacles experienced in similar situations.

 

[acer-kid]

Purely basing a bid on math has bit my ass far too many times. But, on the flip side, going strictly with my gut has got me laughed at.
Anyway you can meet somewhere in the middle? @jefflovstrom

 

[miko0618]

You are going to win some, lose some. Staying home is better than underbidding. I learn this lesson a few times a year. Lol. 15 hour day of wondering why I climb trees for free is a result of underbidding.

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[Erwin]

I take the low bid then bump it up 10-20% to account for error of judgement. I have finished jobs earlier than I thought and lowered my bill accordingly. But never will I raise my price if I underbid it.

If it's a bid job. one need never lower the bill.

 

[Erwin]

If i'm bidding one free standing tree or not too many together, I trust my gut. If it's a tree among many in the wood next to the house, I never truck my gut because it looks smaller and seems easier a job than it actually is. My eyes trick me a lot when I look at a tree among many.

 

[Zale]

A wise old tree worker once told me, "You can never lose money on a job you don't get".

 

[acer-kid]

You can eat real thin ****ing soup, though. I'm sure Jeff isn't dealing with that issue, however.

 

[jefflovstrom]

I went with the math,
50k higher than my gut, four acre property, all removals, we will see what happens, there are a couple other bids.
Jeff

 

[mu2bdriver]

That's a big spread. Better to miss the big job than to lose big money on it.


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[miko0618]

I just bid on a big job... $7,000.00 lol.

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[BuckmasterStumpGrinding]

We have a guy here in oklahoma that clears land 5k per acre.

 

[Erwin]

I went with the math,
50k higher than my gut, four acre property, all removals, we will see what happens, there are a couple other bids.
Jeff

Over here no tree companies can compete withe a green recycling guy whom we all bring our chips to. He charge 5 grand per acre clear cut. He brings tub grinder to job site.

 

[jefflovstrom]

Guy's, I am in So-Cal,,
We have so many restrictions here all the way down to the city restrictions on which only company is allowed to bring in 40 yard roll off's' ( it vary's from city to city depending on how close you are to the ocean,, We have area's like Del Mar that you can not use a blower, La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, ,etc,,
This is a six figure job, I guess my gut went lower than the math because I think the crews would love this job,
This is not like removing some trees, this is a big project ,
I guess the math way was the best because I added the extra costs for big wood dumping,( yeah, paying to dump good eucalyptus wood,,) also, overtime, et al,,,( for those in Rio Linda, et al means,,,http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/et al
Don't need the job, but I kinda want it for the crew, they will be be like kids at a playground,, If we get it I will post pic's,,,
Jeff