What is everyone thinking about oil?

[jdboy9]

There has been a lot of talk lately about our oil supply. I haven't a clue how much we have left people say it could be 8 years or 100+ years till its gone. I know if we keep using it how we are it can't last forever and I have a feeling its going to become very scarce in my lifetime. Almost everything is made from an oil byproduct as well so its not just that we won't have gas to drive around with there are millions of other things that could be affected.

I have 47 acres 3/4 of it is woods and the rest fields. I might be jumping the gun some but I'm glad I have it because I think in the future we might need to be a bit more like the old days and produce our own stuff and live off the land a bit more then we are all used to. Anyone else feel this way?

I am going to be converting over to boiler systems for my heat, I use a woodburner now. Anyone try producing electricity with wood, steam or something? I think it would be a waste of energy since you have to have the water so hot. I'm pretty sure solar and wind is the best source, problem is batteries are expensive and if everyone starts using batteries for electricity we are going to run out of lead to make them.

I have been running things like this around in my head for a few years now anyone else thinking like this or am I crazy? I'm 27 and never before in my life have I even thought about living like this but with $130 electric bill for basically a few heaters, lights and fridge its starting to get old. I used to heat with propane which its not all that bad a 2.00/gal unlike fuel oil 3.25/gal Propane would run me around 2500 a year when i used it now its only about 800.

 

[habanero]

Producing electricity from wood on a home-scale isn't likely to be a viable option for some time with "normal" technology (i.e. steam or even gas turbines). There is just too much involved in getting a turbine to work reliably. I like the idea of solar, but I can't justify the cost given the weather around here. I've been kicking around the idea of a little water-powered microturbine, though, because I have a relatively constant supply of running water on my property. I don't think I could ever come close to powering the house or anything like that, but I may be able to power at least the lights in the barn and maybe the lights in the shop.

 

[mga]

nuclear energy is the way to go.

what i see happening is that as heating costs rise, more people will be burning wood. naturally, and we can see it happening now, this is generating alot of complaints, because of the smoke, smell and polution, from many people and many towns and cities are stepping up to the problem. we can see them now regulating OWB's, and California has or is thinking of passing some strict laws about fireplaces.

so, i don't see wood as the answer to the energy problem. and, considering the cost to cut wood these days, it's getting to be as expensive as natural gas. only those who manage to get it free can make out OK...so far.

the only solution to the energy issue is for the government to increase grants to colleges and universities to study alternative fuel sources. they need to stop subsidizing oil companies and use that money for the grants. this doesn't place any additional burdens on the tax payers. universities will strive harder to find solutions than oil companies.

people also need to do their part as well: insulate your homes, change windows and doors, etc etc. just because you might heat free with wood, doesn't mean you should waste the resource either. you never waste money insulating your home.

 

[wood4heat]

the only solution to the energy issue is for the government to increase grants to colleges and universities to study alternative fuel sources. they need to stop subsidizing oil companies and use that money for the grants. this doesn't place any additional burdens on the tax payers. universities will strive harder to find solutions than oil companies.

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+1 oil subsidies are just George giving our money away. The oil companies don't want to increase supply because it would lower prices and cut their profits.

I am interested in solar at home but don't want batteries. I would be ok with using solar during the day but power off the grid at night. I heat with wood anyway and would be happy if solar could power the ac during the day. Don't know how many panels that would take or what the cost would be, just thinking in type.

 

[Philobite]

Here's what I think

Very cool: Ethanol at $1/gallon from cellulose (think trees, grass, garbage).

 

[irishcountry]

The oil price game seems to be just that a big game now at least in my area the price recently has dropped a decent amount I had heard on the news that the oil companies are worried about America going into recession so they lowered the price of a barrel of crude. To me this sounds like they went from saying be lucky you don't pay what other countries pay to well we can make an exception if its going to cut into out billions in profits per year!! I have also done extensive research into solar and wind but the costs of implementing it into your home and making a dent in what "Normal" house use seems way too much. If you want to do some research I would suggest Mother Earth News and Home power just search for them on google. I too believe that the "hard times" will come but I also think it depends on what your habits have been and what you are used too our family has always been conservative in spending and stayed away from well its only xx amount of dollars a month or heres a great loan at a great (very temporary) rate. I have been used to waiting to get what you want and making what you can't get and i'm sure i'm not the only one. I have over the years seen some buy the biggest trucks and never put anything in the back of them they just look cool or build a humungous home on the best lakefront property but in all reality they can't afford and worse lose it if on person loses their job. I think it will hurt those people the most, the people that are for lack of a better term countryboys will be Ok no matter what. I know I have been trying to slowly educate myself on how things used to be done in part because in interested and part because those things could come in handy. Well I don't think its crazy to at least be prepared so if your crazy well so am I. Just my .2 cents sorry I am long winded!! Take care

 

[windthrown]

Peak Oil

Well, from what I have read from German engineers that I know, we have reached peak oil already. Meaning that there is not enough oil being pumped and refined now to meet demand. Hence, the price has gone up fast and will continue to go up, unless we have a recession and demand decreases. We are entering the era of expensive oil after about 100 years of running on cheap (easy to get) oil.

The issue here is not running out of oil, as that is a long way off. The issue is not being able to continue to increase global oil production to meet increased energy demand. So more demand will be made on coal (dirty stuff to burn, and a greenhouse gas producer) and nuke plants. We should build more nuke plants, but the US public opinion on them is so negative that they are going to lag demand. So we will burn coal. The US is the Saudi Arabia of coal reserves. The western slope of the Rocky Mountians are made up of huge coal deposits.

Problem with so-called alternatives is that they account for less than 1% of total energy produced, and in the long term there simply is not the net energy gain from them as with cheap oil. Also with the increase in ethanol production and the like, that "eats" into food sources. So its going to come down to energy demand vs ability to feed people. As oil prices continue to rise, that will put a lot of pressure on global politics. Famines will become more common along with more power outages. Brown-outs and rolling black outs are already common in the northeast and California, and South Africa.

The future is here now...

 

[JBinKC]

I agree its a major problem. For 2 years crude oil production has been steady at 73 million bbls /day and not have been rising with demand. I think that is one reason why oil prices have been stubbornly high the oil traders know this information and are making conclusions. Fortunately, there has been some growth in biofuel, natural gas liquids production and refinery processing gains to supplement the higher gasoline demand but that can't last forever.

As for electricity unfortunately, the payback of a period of solar or wind systems in many parts of the country are about 20-25 years unless you can get a system subsidized by both state and federal governments. Solar water heating definitely has a better payback period and is a better investment to make but the payback period is about 6-15 years without a subsidy.

All you can really do economically is to heat with wood and hope that everyone isn't thinking the same way you are and conserve electricity by using CFLs, unplug unused appliances etc. because you know wage inflation will nowhere exceed basic needs inflation in the future.

I also agree that our economy will eventually have to become more localized again especially for perishables.

 

[Locoweed]

Folks dumping their gas guzzlers wouldn't be a bad move either. :jawdrop:

There is a lot of information available in book form and on the net. The problem is sorting out real information from the BS.

Here is a link

http://globalpublicmedia.com/dr_albert_bartlett_arithmetic_population_and_energy

to another way of looking at many of our future issues. Get past the first 10 minutes of minor math stuff and it gets better as it goes. You can download the audio or watch the streaming video or download the transcripts.

 

[mga]

Very cool: Ethanol at $1/gallon from cellulose (think trees, grass, garbage).

the problem with ethanol is that it increases the price of everything else, no matter what it's made out of.

ethanol is simply a modern day scam....period.

 

[Philobite]

the problem with ethanol is that it increases the price of everything else, no matter what it's made out of.

ethanol is simply a modern day scam....period.

You didn't read the link... period.

 

[JBinKC]

+1 oil subsidies are just George giving our money away. The oil companies don't want to increase supply because it would lower prices and cut their profits.

I disagree big oil only now controls a little over 10% of the world's supply. This is down from over 50% in the 70s. They have no influence at all on the price of oil. Another problem is they have very few projects of scale (other than bitumen) left and the profits they are making now are nowhere near what is required to expand it very fast.

 

[habanero]

the problem with ethanol is that it increases the price of everything else, no matter what it's made out of.

ethanol is simply a modern day scam....period.

I know better than to get drug into this argument, but I can't help myself...

So you've made a point, care to elaborate on why you think it's such a scam?

 

[mga]

I know better than to get drug into this argument, but I can't help myself...

So you've made a point, care to elaborate on why you think it's such a scam?

first, to address Philobite:

Tobey said Coskata's method generates more ethanol per ton of feedstock than corn-based ethanol and requires far less water, heat and pressure. Those cost savings allow it to turn, say, two bales of hay into five gallons of ethanol for less than $1 a gallon, the company said. Corn-based ethanol costs $1.40 a gallon to produce, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

we'll wait and see how great his invention really is.

as for ethanol being a scam, since it's conception, corn has been the "wonder fuel". that being the case, the price of corn has increased quite a bit. if you were a farmer, who would you sell corn to: a refinery willing to pay you, say, $5.00 per bushel, or to Kellogs Cereal willing to pay $2.00 per bushel. corn is used in many products, and ethanol has driven up the price. so, you might feel like you're saving more standing at a gas pump, but how did you feel paying 25 to 45% more for groceries?

also, ethanol mixed gas is no cheaper than unmixed. and....you get better milage with unmixed gasoline than you do with ethanol mixed. so, where is the savings? either way, you are getting ripped off.....unless, of course you are a corn farmer.

 

[Philobite]

as for ethanol being a scam, since it's conception, corn has been the "wonder fuel". that being the case, the price of corn has increased quite a bit. if you were a farmer, who would you sell corn to: a refinery willing to pay you, say, $5.00 per bushel, or to Kellogs Cereal willing to pay $2.00 per bushel. corn is used in many products, and ethanol has driven up the price. so, you might feel like you're saving more standing at a gas pump, but how did you feel paying 25 to 45% more for groceries?

You're exactly right. Grain based ethanol is a ripoff and very bad soil policy as well. It's ridiculous that we've allowed it to go as far as it has.

My background is in R&D (successful technological patents and all that). This cellulose ethanol conversion process actually does work, and is being replicated by other groups. It'll take a few years to productionize it.

As to the price of ethanol, E85 is much less expensive ($2.45 at the moment). Engines that are tuned for ethanol (because it is super-high octane) perform just fine. It would take a while to get ethanol cellulose up and going but when it does it could revolutionize things both and the consumer end as well as the production end.

 

[habanero]

Nobody in their right mind would argue that carbohydrate-based ethanol is the end-all be-all answer to our transportation fuel problems. I'm not even sure that cellulosic ethanol is the entire answer, though it's a step in the right direction.

But those statements aside, I get extremely tired of hearing all the "oh my goodness, ethanol's driving up the price of my corn flakes" argument. What do you think 3 dollar diesel has done to every single thing you buy (I mean everything-clothes, televisions, computers, etc.-everything is shipped by a diesel engine at some point)? I guarantee it's done more than 5 dollar corn has. It's crazy to think otherwise.

Now let's move in another direction. Suppose ethanol did cost a little more than petroleum-based fuels. Where would you rather that money go-to an American farmer or a middle-eastern terrorist? And don't give me the BS that we don't buy our oil from the middle east, it doesn't matter where we actually buy our oil from, the middle east benefits greatly from our purchase. Further, I have yet to see a petroleum/ethanol cost comparison that factors in the money spent on two Iraqi wars, but I'd sure like to see that figured in.

Like I said at the beginning, I'd never argue that grain ethanol is the silver bullet (I don't think there is a silver bullet, but if there was, ethanol wouldn't likely be it). There is just no way to sustainably raise that much grain on the available land we have. But, we have hundreds of years of experience in our back pocket in brewing ethanol, and it has at least got people somewhat used to the idea of putting something other than gas in their car.

 

[windthrown]

Yah, the corn lobby (ADM, Monsanto, etc.) is getting a lot of subsidies and preferred market treatment of late. And it is (at some point) going to "eat" into the food supply. It is also not all that efficient, and dependant on oil for fertilizer and tilling and transport, and for blending at this point.

In Brazil, sugar is far more efficient in making ethanol with. They burn it cheap down there. Here we need some other types of feedstock to really get the process rolling. Canola, switchgrass, veggie waste, and other stuff is going to have to be used. It is going to take some time, and in the meantime there is going to be a lot of pipe dream investments in energy alternatives that will be on the scale of the late 1990's tec bubble.

As for burning wood, the price of wood here has gone up at the same rate as gas. Not that we pay for it, but the price is high enough for us to start cutting and selling firewood here, rather than waiting to cut for timber. High taper trees are just as good for wood burning as high grade lumber trees. And the price is better for firewood now for most of the species we grow here. Alder and cedar are the only two exceptions. Doug fir is back down to $650 MBF.

 

[jdboy9]

Interesting posts guys thanks for the responses.

I think it all boils down to the one most important thing is that we all need to learn to conserve a little not be so wasteful and I'm sure all of us have done it at one point in time.

I live in a 2500 sq/ft house my parents built back in 1991 when they thought a larger home was the way to go. Well...at this point I'm ready to burn it down and build a 1500 High effcient home because this one is killing me, and its not all that big either.

 

[habanero]

...I think it all boils down to the one most important thing is that we all need to learn to conserve a little not be so wasteful and I'm sure all of us have done it at one point in time...

If there is such a thing as a silver bullet to fix a big chunk of our energy problems, that is it right there. It's awfully hard to convince folks not to keep their thermostats at 70+ and keep every light in the house on, though.

 

[windthrown]

Well, this house is newer, and efficiently built and insulated, but... the architecture was not so great for heating efficiency. It has tons of skylights and windows, and lofted ceilings. A real expensive house to heat, conventionally. So it now has a solar water heater for summer, and a wood boiler for space and water heating in winter. Overall we save about $300 a month in fall/winter/early spring on electricity using the wood boiler. As for gas, that is another story. We have a lot of chainsaws and power equipment. No replacement for those. Also have a tractor and 3/4 ton farm truck that eat diesel. We get it at a discount though with off-road non-taxed rate. They dye it red to bust people using it on the highway. We also have a car and pickup for on road use. Fertilizer has gone way up too, as well as hay. These all pretty much track the price of oil.

So some places you can change your ways of using energy, and others you cannot. We burn wood instead of paying an electric bill. I go to town less often now and make more stops when I am there. Usually I will load up the turck when I go to the city with gorceries, feed and supplies. But becoming more efficient will not stop the peak oil process... we live in a world with a rapidly expanding population, which is putting huge pressure on global reserves. The entire global economic, political and commerce systems are all based on GROWTH. That has to change. But stopping, or even slowing population growth is going to be impossible to do, given current political, religious and cultural ideologies. Heck, even a recession or short term stall is considered the worst thing possible in the economy. We are in one right now, and they are pulling out all the stops to get the system expanding again.

We are all but bacteria in a petri dish.