Speculation on next years market?

[flotek]

The farmers almanac was spot on for our area and they were saying this back in October amazing that Caleb weather bee is more accurate than the countries top meteorologists . In years past I've watched nature to predict the winters and devoted a great deal of time and research on what to look for in natural signs .. Well none of those Indian tales were accurate . The one accurate thing in nature I did note was the deer . They were out and moving long before normal rut season the fall archery hunters reported fat deer with more girth to them than normal . Somehow The animals understood the winter was going to be brutal and food scarce with bitter cold so they fattened themselves for self preservation

 

[Hddnis]

I pay attention to rodents, if they move into my shop it is going to be a mild winter. If they dig deep into the ground than the winter is going to be unusually cold, deeper they dig colder it will be. I can't give exact numbers, but I've seen winters where there were no signs of rodent burrows in late fall and they were mild, and then others where you new they were digging deep and within weeks it was bitter cold. I just wish I could find a sign for how much snow vs. just cold.


Mr. HE

 

[Hellbent]

We got told long and cold... They were right! Glad though, last summer terrible for flies and insects tore up the cows no matter what we did. I'm hoping the sustained cold will kill a bunch off. Flotek is right on the deer, i noticed that too. Waterfowl started moving early here as well.

There really is something to that "animals have a sixth sense" thing

 

[zogger]

My Siamese/American shorthair tom is like that. His winter coat is brown, man, he was bushing out when it was still in the 90s outside.

 

[flotek]

I noticed this fall my red maples started dropping leaves early while it was still warm out . I noticed geese flying south in late summer . I kept warning everyone it was going to get bad but they wouldn't listen. My neighbor already is on his 5th ton of pellets and he had to fire up a kerosene heater as well because the pellet burner couldn't keep up in our zero degree days

 

[Jim Timber]

Thanks for the replies.

I've always planned on firewood as a side business to my other wood product and other work, but I'm wondering if now's the time to jump in.

 

[Hddnis]

Thanks for the replies.

I've always planned on firewood as a side business to my other wood product and other work, but I'm wondering if now's the time to jump in.

I would say now is a good time to be selling firewood. I can't say for sure it is a good time to jump in if it means you will sell wood next season and beyond. There are many who believe that we are going to see more drastic winters in the future, if they are right firewood will be a good business to be in. If it isn't your only source of income than a low sales year or two just means more to sell when a bad winter comes around.



Mr. HE

 

[Jim Timber]

It's more of a means of disposal for un-merchantable trees for my lumber operation. I can allow someone else to come in and remove them for me and pay pennies on the dollar, or I can do the work myself and add it as another product I produce.

Getting into firewood has always been in the big picture plan, the scale of how much skin I put into it has always been in question. Part of that haziness has been from a lack of understanding of all that's involved. As I learn more about the overall scope of what my business will entail, I see that investing in some machinery is the only way to be viable at all.

 

[dingeryote]

Propane shortage is driving prices above 6 bucks a gallon right now, and folks still can't get anything but a 1-200gallon fill.

Electric space heaters are flying off the shelves, and people are ******** non stop about the electric bill.

You guys in the midwest that are selling forewood, need to add a couple hundred extra cord, and raise prices.
Next year will have a BUNCH of new folks on wood heat, and not enough seasoned wood.
Everybody is sold out around here, and prices went from 150 a cord to 190...it got ugly.
It wont get better any time soon either.

 

[Jim Timber]

190 in my area will buy you garbage wood. I'm looking at more like 250-300 for decent oak. I have no problem holding out for everyone else to sell out either. Space is something I have even more of than trees.

 

[chuckwood]

I was going to put up a post about the regular US farmers almanac. Anyone have one, how have they done so far?

The US Farmer's Almanac is spot on for the winter of 2013-2014. They warned about lots of snow and bitter cold. Almanac says that Feb 2014 will also be bad with alternating warmups and then more bitter cold and more snow. We've got one more month of this to go. I'm real happy with it here in TN, the ground has been frozen so I've been doing good on my hilly ground in the woods. I'm cutting and splitting lots of hackberry and oak for next year, gonna sell a lot of it. What I hate is trying to work in a big mud mess. I also don't like cutting and splitting in summer heat, from 10 to 20 degrees is perfect for me.

I've been watching the Almanac forecasts for a number of years, and they have been very reliable. If they say we'll have a very cold 2014-15 winter, I'll make my plans accordingly.

 

[dingeryote]

190 in my area will buy you garbage wood. I'm looking at more like 250-300 for decent oak. I have no problem holding out for everyone else to sell out either. Space is something I have even more of than trees.

Yeah...you guys in that neck of the woods pay out the nose for decent stuff.
Another member here filled me in on his strategy for selling Popple to the yuppies up there, and it's hillarious.

Generally a cord of mixed Oak, Maple and Ash will bring 150-160 here. Less if there's Sassafrass mixed in.
If trucking wasn't so expensive, it might be worth hauling it.

Either way, stand by for a buttload of new customers. You could probaly sell slabwood for a decent price as well.

 

[Jim Timber]

Oh, I plan on selling aspen too! Camp wood!

I'm going to be setting up a sawmill on my land, and will be selling slabs, 5/4 boards, cants (for timber frames), and whatever else I can produce. I'll also probably do customer logs as well if they turn out to be profitable. Building a kiln is in the future as well.

Tops won't feed through a skidsteer processor, so I'll probably need to work on something for that. Maybe a conveyor to feed bucked wood into the splitter and have someone keep it loaded up as the machine churns through it? Remote solenoid control could keep that a one-man job too.

 

[Jim Timber]

Crow Wing County is home to a lot of uber-wealthy folks who like one-upping their neighbors. Being able to produce locally grown "green" (yes, I giggle with Dr. Evil laughs using that term) products has a certain appeal to these people, and they'll pay accordingly.

Wood is actually more profitable down in the metro where I currently live. Being able to cart it down and drop it off may or may not increase the margins on the product, but anything above the actual costs of processing this "junk" wood is pure profit anyway. I need it gone! I have crop trees that need releasing, which means I have an abundance of wood that just need to be removed - selling it as firewood if I can't get a cant and some boards out of it is a no-brainer.

 

[farmer steve]

It's more of a means of disposal for un-merchantable trees for my lumber operation. I can allow someone else to come in and remove them for me and pay pennies on the dollar, or I can do the work myself and add it as another product I produce.

Getting into firewood has always been in the big picture plan, the scale of how much skin I put into it has always been in question. Part of that haziness has been from a lack of understanding of all that's involved. As I learn more about the overall scope of what my business will entail, I see that investing in some machinery is the only way to be viable at all.

Crow Wing County is home to a lot of uber-wealthy folks who like one-upping their neighbors. Being able to produce locally grown "green" (yes, I giggle with Dr. Evil laughs using that term) products has a certain appeal to these people, and they'll pay accordingly.

Wood is actually more profitable down in the metro where I currently live. Being able to cart it down and drop it off may or may not increase the margins on the product, but anything above the actual costs of processing this "junk" wood is pure profit anyway. I need it gone! I have crop trees that need releasing, which means I have an abundance of wood that just need to be removed - selling it as firewood if I can't get a cant and some boards out of it is a no-brainer.

JT,"buy local,sustainable,green" will all help with sales.unsawable wood for lumber = value added product=firewood=$$$ for you. good luck if yougive it a shot.

 

[Jim Timber]

Just a matter of crunching numbers and if I want to take on the debt against my assets or not at this point. I'm going forward - how quickly is another question. I'll probably call my banker Monday and bounce some numbers off him and see what he comes back with. He think's my muzzle devices are going to take off, but I need some paying work until that happens, even if it's just building inventory for later sale.

I'm liking what I see on the Cat 262's. Used they're around 30K with the luxury suite (AC and all the bells).

 

[flotek]

You can make some side money doing firewood but not a living ..always remember the old saying that still rings true today by the time it's all said and done :
firewood is a poor mans business

 

[jrider]

Business will boom next year. People will remember this winter catching them with their pants down and will plan better....most of them at least. I've been sold out for a month a still get 3-5 calls a week from people wanting wood.

 

[alleyyooper]

Ran into a fellow who owns one of our bee yards land. Has a 2000 SQ FT home and heats with propane. Said the propane company wouldn't deliver any to him till he was down to 20% and then they would only bring him up to 50% at over $5.00 a gallon.
told me he priced a Central boiler at a local dealer and they quoted him $6000 for it and the install and accessory's would be extra.

I swear that is way high, Seems like my best quote for a OSWB was 6000.00 installed.

Al

 

[Jim Timber]

You can make some side money doing firewood but not a living ..always remember the old saying that still rings true today by the time it's all said and done :
firewood is a poor mans business

I guess it's a matter of what you value in life. I don't particularly care much for the newest cars, and the biggest house. If I could pay off a skidsteer while clearing out my undesirable trees (300 cords should do it), then this is a cash-positive proposition. I have 84 acres that need thinning. I have about 5 acres of that which need to be clear cut. So should I give away the equity on my land to a logger or should I cash in on it myself? To me, that's not even a question.

In all honesty, my dream job would pay 50K a year and give me 9 months off. Since I happen to abhor offices, and like working with my hands, getting into alternative forest products is a nice hobby along side my specialty manufacturing operations.

I have no desire or intention of ever getting rich. I wouldn't reject a good income, but it's a byproduct rather than the goal. IMO people who live for money don't have a life worth living. If I ever came into a chunk of money, I'd buy more land.