Where's WYK been, and what trouble is he making?

[northmanlogging]

Wow North you really do believe your own nonsense. Like I said people through out the world are dying, but as long as you do not see it in your neighbor hood much you are OK with it. OK how many people starved to death January, February, and March of 2020 which 100% preventable, but apparently no problem and what have you done about it? Thanks

You simply do not get it do you.

For the record Ted, I don't think you are smart enough to make an informed decision on your own, and the only reason I'm choosing to engage with you is to counteract your ignorance with fact, so that maybe someone doesn't take your drivel as fact and ends up getting dead because of it.

otherwise I would not waste my effort arguing with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.

 

[northmanlogging]

The simple facts here are, people are dying, at an ever increasing rate, especially in places like Italy, or various US states that have not taken the threat of covid-19 seriously, as some would say these deaths would have been preventable if certain political figures had taken them seriously way back in January, but they did not, and likened it to the common flu... which it is not.

Meanwhile in the places where folks are taking this seriously, the virus is not spreading as fast or has actually begun to decline, this isn't some liberal conspiracy, its how a quarantine works, seal off those infected from the healthy population and the virus will die off.

But if you remain a moron and choose to believe a dimwitted celebrity conman, your actions will lead to someone somewhere dying, possibly millions of someone dying.

don't believe me, multiply 330000000 by 1.4%, the conservative fatality rate of covid-19, it being as high as 14% in some areas

 

[madhatte]

the only reason I'm choosing to engage with you is to counteract your ignorance with fact, so that maybe someone doesn't take your drivel as fact and ends up getting dead because of it.

I concur 100%. My workplace resisted allowing isolation until late last week and so I was unable to avoid contact with people until then. They have even had the audacity to claim, ignorant of all facts and without citing sources, that we are somehow an island of safety during televised townhall meetings, as recently as yesterday. The underlying fear of illness and death seems to take a back seat to the fear of disrupting business as usual, the market, the budget, etc. Let's get this one out in the open: this is a real pandemic, like pandemics of old, and it's going to be both expensive and disruptive. There is no way to polish that particular turd. Gird your loins, friends, it's gonna get worse before it gets better. We are still on the uphill side of an exponential curve. Do not place money on any relief before June at the earliest. Brace yourselves for a second, less dramatic, outbreak come fall. It will be no less than a year before a vaccine is available and even then it is not guaranteed.

 

[wyk]

I wonder how this Covid compares to colds and flue through out the world and how many deaths occur every year which is not preventable, Then there is aids which is 100% preventable, alcohol and related deaths which is 100% preventable, opioids and the overdosing which is 100% preventable, smoking which is 100% preventable, obesity which is 100% preventable and there are many others. I do not hear about any of these issues in the news or do these things shut down the world or USA. Actually I do know the answer, but just wondering if any body else knows. Thanks

Ted,

Thank you for presenting your ideas to us. We're all just friends here trying to share our thoughts with each other. This isn't a debate, and we're not trying to gaslight or change any one persons' minds. It's a bar table, and we're shooting the breeze. If we can keep it amiable, that would be nice. If you dislike the discourse, there are a great many other threads you could join in to share your wisdom. We're not here to argue.

 

[wyk]

I concur 100%. My workplace resisted allowing isolation until late last week and so I was unable to avoid contact with people until then. They have even had the audacity to claim, ignorant of all facts and without citing sources, that we are somehow an island of safety during televised townhall meetings, as recently as yesterday. The underlying fear of illness and death seems to take a back seat to the fear of disrupting business as usual, the market, the budget, etc. Let's get this one out in the open: this is a real pandemic, like pandemics of old, and it's going to be both expensive and disruptive. There is no way to polish that particular turd. Gird your loins, friends, it's gonna get worse before it gets better. We are still on the uphill side of an exponential curve. Do not place money on any relief before June at the earliest. Brace yourselves for a second, less dramatic, outbreak come fall. It will be no less than a year before a vaccine is available and even then it is not guaranteed.

It reminds me when I responded to the first Corona thread here and was asked how I knew what I knew. I said much of what you just did, and got nothing but disdain. I think as engineers, you and I often forget that some folks aren't very good with vetting information, and statistics don't come naturally to most. When I saw the first few stats from China, complete with the suspected r0/infection rate, and with the knowledge it was a new mutation of corona, I was shocked. When other countries did not react at all, I knew it wasn't going to meet much resistance for at least a while, which is all a pandemic needed. We all feared a pandemic was eventually headed our way, but when you see it developing in front of your eyes you climb right on that stage of grief ladder. To their credit, many people in the pandemic field called it back when SARS hit, including the likes of Bill Gates. I saw a few of them interviewed that said the next pandemic was going to be a version of Corona or H1N1 with a slightly higher r0. A slightly higher risk of infection was all SARS and H1N1 et. al. needed to get everyone involved. I think they hugely under estimated the economic costs, though.

When H1N1, aka Swine flu(H1N1)pdm09 hit, it took over 6 months to create the vaccine, and a few more to make it available. They produce flu vaccines all day long, and are quite good at it, and it took 6 months to bring it to trial. So, basically, vaccines are not for pandemics, only for the survivors. This has to wash over the populace before any of us know how it will affect us. It's the way with pandemics.

I do fear the costs for India. Those poor folks will have it very rough.

 

[wyk]

Now enjoy this little break:



Nov 12, 2019, so prolly was the epicenter of the pandemic

 

[madhatte]

It reminds me when I responded to the first Corona thread here and was asked how I knew what I knew.

I also have a good friend who is a research virologist who was on the team that developed the Ebola vaccine. I simply asked him how worried I should be. I can say with confidence: know your experts. Cultivate and protect them. This goes for any problem, no matter how picayune, though it is especially critical now, when so many in both the government and the public seem to have developed an allergy to facts.

 

[wyk]

Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London just released a paper. Basically stating the suppression measures Europe are taking now are showing good effects.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...urope-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

 

[wyk]

It's still very rough here tho -

https://apnews.com/9625f2983ac615d631a64e3e99b0e69e

 

[Ted Jenkins]

The simple facts here are, people are dying, at an ever increasing rate, especially in places like Italy, or various US states that have not taken the threat of covid-19 seriously, as some would say these deaths would have been preventable if certain political figures had taken them seriously way back in January, but they did not, and likened it to the common flu... which it is not.

Meanwhile in the places where folks are taking this seriously, the virus is not spreading as fast or has actually begun to decline, this isn't some liberal conspiracy, its how a quarantine works, seal off those infected from the healthy population and the virus will die off.

But if you remain a moron and choose to believe a dimwitted celebrity conman, your actions will lead to someone somewhere dying, possibly millions of someone dying.

don't believe me, multiply 330000000 by 1.4%, the conservative fatality rate of covid-19, it being as high as 14% in some areas

North you great at missing facts with hysteria with out an intelligent debate. Instead you in your great wisdom want to spend time exchanging insults which I would love to do, but it is wasted time. I guess your answer is put your head back where it was and have a great day. Thanks

 

[wyk]

Times like these will bring out the worst and the best

 

[madhatte]

North you great at missing facts with hysteria with out an intelligent debate.

Surely you're kidding me. The alternative is willful ignorance and confirmation bias, a notoriously dangerous combination.

 

[sawfun]

Times like these will bring out the worst and the best

You said it brother. If anyone thinks it's a hoax or political,ask someone in Italy or Spain, hell even New York. A fellow workmate from Greece explained their ultra tight measures and the relative success rate (lower death numbers) compared to other countries.

 

[northmanlogging]

North you great at missing facts with hysteria with out an intelligent debate. Instead you in your great wisdom want to spend time exchanging insults which I would love to do, but it is wasted time. I guess your answer is put your head back where it was and have a great day. Thanks

There is no debate to be had Ted, either you believe idiots vs Doctors and scientists, or you're just an ******* that doesn't give a **** about killing countless scores of people for your own selfishness.

PEOPLE ARE DYING for something that should have been preventable, MORE WILL DIE because assholes like you don't believe in "science"

This is not hysteria, this is cold reality.

for the record Ted, I'm not exchanging Insults, you are in fact a moron, you're dumb and an ass vomiting your ignorance because you think being over 60 years old is some kind of achievement.

It's specifically people like you Ted, that I do not respect anyone based on age alone, everyone gets the same amount to start with, biased not on age, color, religion, gender, or appearance. You Ted have eroded all respect I would normally give, not just in this thread, but many others you have been less then accurate if not outright lying.

 

[northmanlogging]

Times like these will bring out the worst and the best

a yup...

 

[northmanlogging]

There is no debate to be had Ted, either you believe idiots vs Doctors and scientists, or you're just an ******* that doesn't give a **** about killing countless scores of people for your own selfishness.

PEOPLE ARE DYING for something that should have been preventable, MORE WILL DIE because assholes like you don't believe in "science"

This is not hysteria, this is cold reality.

for the record Ted, I'm not exchanging Insults, you are in fact a moron, you're dumb and an ass vomiting your ignorance because you think being over 60 years old is some kind of achievement.

It's specifically people like you Ted, that I do not respect anyone based on age alone, everyone gets the same amount to start with, biased not on age, color, religion, gender, or appearance. You Ted have eroded all respect I would normally give, not just in this thread, but many others you have been less then accurate if not outright lying.

except anyone wearing a suit to work, or a cowboy hat... Never trust either, both are tying to sell you something

 

[wyk]

except anyone wearing a suit to work, or a cowboy hat... Never trust either, both are tying to sell you something

Except mebbe Texas

So, yeah, instead of just reprimanding the Captain, they also releived the guy. I know he violated the security of the ship, and it did let enemies know it was compromised.
So, I dunno.

 

[wendell]

Except mebbe Texas

So, yeah, instead of just reprimanding the Captain, they also releived the guy. I know he violated the security of the ship, and it did let enemies know it was compromised.
So, I dunno.

Teddy Roosevelt's great grandson posted an article today saying Teddy did exactly the same thing after the Battle of San Juan Hill. The government wanted to leave the troops there but with the malaria and yellow fever, they wanted to get home. So Teddy wrote a letter to the newspapers. Soldiers were home in short order.

 

[John Lyngdal]

My wife has her PhD in Cellular Biology and was the lead ABSA certified Bio-Safety Officer at one of the largest primate research labs in the US.
The facility had scores of BSL3 and ABSL3 labs where virology research took place. And yes, we are most days spending time in self-imposed isolation and being very careful if we go out.
There is no such thing as a universal anti-viral treatment, rather they are a specialized response to an existing virus and that takes time.
Isolation and sterilization processes are needed to delay the speed of the outbreak and buy time for the research and pharmaceutical companies to develop a vaccine.
The ease of transmission, long surface lifetime, infectious state prior to symptoms are combining to make COVID-19 a difficult beast to contain.
Nothing pissed me off more than watching the invincible youth gathering in huge crowds for Spring Break revelry when it was contrary to common sense.

Because of the limited general public testing in the US, an accurate death rate really can't be calculated as only the numerator is known. That’s not to say it’s insignificant, but the numbers are approximations at best.
Rather that running in circles and waving our hands about impending doom and playing Woulda-Coulda-Shoulda, we should as best we can follow the CDC guidelines and recommendations.

 

[northmanlogging]

Except mebbe Texas

So, yeah, instead of just reprimanding the Captain, they also releived the guy. I know he violated the security of the ship, and it did let enemies know it was compromised.
So, I dunno.

cowboy hats only get a pass, if and a big if at that, there are horses, and or cows present, even then... the cowboys I grew up around wore ball caps and road ATV's... so?

I will overlook cowboy boots, but only because some folks think they are comfortable...